Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 81,881 / -2.11%
- ETHUSD: 2,403 / -5.06%
- US10Y: 5.12% / -7 bps
- DXY: 101.77 / -0.63%
- Gold (USD/oz): 4,133 / -1.23%
- SPX: 7,691 / -1.49%
- NDX: 29,529 / -3.64%
- VIX: 18.43 / +21.25%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 20 October 2026: US Housing Starts & Building Permits, Earnings: $NFLX, $SPCX
- Wednesday, 21 October 2026: Earnings: $META, $TSLA, $IBM
- Thursday, 22 October 2026: US Initial Jobless Claims
- Friday, 23 October 2026: US Manufacturing & Services PMIs, US Consumer Sentiment
On the macro side:
Risk sentiment deteriorated over the past week, with the S&P 500 declining 1.49% and the Nasdaq 100 losing 3.64%, as concerns over AI-related capital expenditure continued to weigh on technology stocks. Volatility increased notably, with the VIX rising more than 21% to 18.43, reflecting greater demand for downside protection.
Meanwhile, US Treasury yields continued to ease, with the 10-year yield falling to 5.12%, approximately 7 basis points lower week-over-week. The US dollar also weakened modestly, while gold retreated towards USD 4,130. Despite lower yields, risk assets have struggled to regain momentum, suggesting that concerns over equity valuations and corporate earnings remain dominant.
During his appearance at the IMF meetings in Bangkok, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh highlighted the resilience of the US economy and the longer-term productivity potential of AI, while acknowledging persistent inflationary pressures. He provided no clear signal regarding the Fed’s next decision. Markets currently assign approximately an 85% probability to unchanged rates at the 28 October meeting, although expectations for another rate hike in December remain elevated.
This week’s attention shifts towards corporate earnings, particularly from Meta and Tesla, which could provide important indications of the sustainability of AI-related investment and broader risk appetite.
On the crypto side:
BTCUSD continues to consolidate around USD 82,000 following last week’s selloff, which briefly pushed prices below USD 80,000. Bitcoin is currently trading below its 20-day EMA near USD 82,500, while remaining above its 50-day EMA around USD 80,600. Immediate support lies between USD 80,000 and 81,300, with a sustained break potentially opening the door towards USD 78,800. On the upside, USD 82,500 represents the first resistance, followed by the USD 83,300–84,400 region. Daily RSI near 48 indicates broadly neutral momentum.
ETHUSD continues to underperform Bitcoin, declining approximately 5% week-over-week. At around USD 2,400, Ethereum is trading below both its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, currently near USD 2,500. Immediate support lies around USD 2,375, followed by USD 2,325, while the USD 2,480–2,550 region remains the key resistance zone. With daily RSI near 39, momentum remains relatively weak.
In the derivatives market, 7-day ATM implied volatility stands at 32.14% for BTC and 46.27% for ETH. The corresponding 25-delta risk reversals remain negative at -2.42 and -4.16 volatility points, respectively, indicating continued demand for downside protection, particularly in ETH. Meanwhile, the implied volatility term structure remains upward sloping for both assets, suggesting relatively contained near-term volatility expectations. Bitcoin perpetual funding also remains modestly positive, indicating that leveraged long positioning has not been fully unwound.
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