Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 79,143 / -2.0%
- ETHUSD: 2,481 / -1.2%
- US10Y: 4.78% / +8 BPS
- DXY: 99.48 / +0.41%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,440 / -4.6%
- SPX: 7,686 / +0.44%
- NDX: 29,457 / +1.50%
- VIX: 14.93 / -5.74%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 1 September 2026: US JOLTS, ISM Manufacturing
- Wednesday, 2 September 2026: US ADP Employment, Fed Beige Book
- Thursday, 3 September 2026: US Jobless Claims, ISM Services
- Friday, 4 September 2026: US NFP, Unemployment Rate
On the macro side:
Last week’s key macro catalyst was Jackson Hole, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a considerably more hawkish message than markets had been positioned for.
Warsh reiterated the Fed’s commitment to its 2% inflation target and argued that the recent improvement in inflation has not yet been sufficient to demonstrate a meaningful change in the underlying trend. July PCE reinforced that problem, with headline inflation at 3.7% and core PCE at 3.3% year-over-year.
Markets consequently increased the probability of another September rate hike to around 60–65%. The U.S. 10-year yield rose another 8 bps to 4.78%, the dollar strengthened slightly, while gold reversed sharply and fell 4.6%.
Risk assets, however, remained surprisingly resilient. SPX gained 0.4%, NDX rose 1.5%, helped by another strong NVIDIA earnings report.
From a technical perspective, this creates an interesting divergence: yields and the dollar have moved in a direction that would normally pressure risk assets, yet equities and crypto have so far refused to meaningfully break lower.
Friday’s NFP report is therefore the key event this week. Another weak employment print could unwind part of the post-Jackson Hole move in yields, while a strong report would reinforce the case for a September hike.
On the crypto side:
After gaining more than 25% the week before, Bitcoin has essentially moved sideways.
BTC is down only 2% week-over-week and currently trades around the dominant four-hour volume node at USD 78,500–79,000. The next significant volume concentration below sits around USD 75,500.
Liquidation levels are similarly well defined. Short liquidations are concentrated around USD 79,400–79,800 and USD 81,600–81,700, while the main long-liquidation cluster sits around USD 76,600–76,900.
Short-dated options retain an upside skew: BTC 7-day ATM IV is 35.7% with a +1.34 25D RR, while ETH trades at 45.9% with a +1.60 RR. BTC skew turns slightly negative further out the curve.
ETH is down only 1.2% after gaining more than 32% the week before. USD 2,500–2,550 remains the immediate resistance area, with USD 2,400 the first support.
Among the larger altcoins, SOL and HYPE stand out. SOL has gained roughly 7% since last Tuesday, outperforming both BTC and ETH, while Solana’s seven-day average fee generation recently reached a record of almost 9,200 SOL and non-vote transactions hit a record 191 million. Validators also approved a proposal doubling the network’s annual disinflation rate from 15% to 30%. HYPE is up roughly 6% week-over-week and traded around record highs, supported by Hyperliquid’s strong protocol revenues and token buybacks. One near-term event to watch is a scheduled 9.92 million HYPE token unlock on 6 September, currently worth around USD 800 million.
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