Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 83,902 / -1.57%
- ETHUSD: 2,695 / -1.14%
- US10Y: 5.23% / +25 bps
- DXY: 101.25 / +0.79%
- Gold (USD/oz): 4,144 / -4%
- SPX: 7,683 / -1.04%
- NDX: 30,276 / -0.68%
- VIX: 16.08 / +8.2%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 29 September 2026: US JOLTs
- Wednesday, 30 September 2026: US PCE, Earnings $MU
- Thursday, 01 October 2026: US Jobless claims
- Friday, 02 October 2026: US NFP
On the macro side:
Risk assets traded lower week-over-week, pressured by a stronger USD and higher Treasury yields. The USD rates curve remains highly compressed, with UST 2Y yields at 4.94% and UST 10Y yields at 5.24%, resulting in a notably flat term structure.
On one hand, this suggests that markets continue to price elevated inflation and restrictive monetary conditions in the near term. On the other hand, one could argue that stronger nominal growth should be accompanied by higher long-end yields, although that narrative remains difficult to fully reconcile with current market pricing.
This week, Micron earnings will be the first major catalyst for AI-related equities and broader risk sentiment. Attention will then shift to Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, which is likely to be the key macro event of the week.
On the crypto side:
In crypto, concerns around ongoing fiscal expansion and sovereign debt sustainability continue to support the bitcoin investment thesis, with BTCUSD trading around the important USD 84,000 level.
The 30-day EMA currently sits near USD 80,200 and should provide initial support, while recent highs around USD 88,000 are likely to act as resistance. A similar setup can be observed in ETHUSD, which is currently trading around the key USD 2,700 level.
Outside the majors, we continue to see significant dispersion across altcoins. While volatility is creating attractive opportunities to reduce exposure in certain names, only a limited number of projects continue to demonstrate a compelling roadmap and sustainable fundamentals.
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