Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 70,229 / −8.53%
- ETHUSD: 1,983 / −5.44%
- US10Y: 4.47% / −9 BPS
- DXY: 99.05 / −0.06%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,566 / +0.79%
- SPX: 7,600 / +1.70%
- NDX: 30,514 / +3.50%
- VIX: 16.05 / −3.26%
Looking ahead – weekly economic calendar:
- Wednesday, 3 June 2026: US ADP National Employment (May), ISM Services PMI (May)
- Thursday, 4 June 2026: US Initial Jobless Claims
- Friday, 5 June 2026: US Nonfarm Payrolls (May), Unemployment Rate – the week’s binary catalyst
- Saturday, 6 June 2026: Hyperliquid (HYPE) monthly Core Contributors unlock (~9.92 million HYPE, ~$715 million)
On the macro side:
Equities decoupled to the upside while the rest of the risk complex repriced geopolitics. The SPX printed a record close to start June (7,600, +1.70% WoW) and NDX added +3.50% to 30,514 on the AI/tech bid, even as the Iran file re-escalated. Weekend ceasefire and Hormuz talks stalled, and on Monday Iran halted communications and signalled a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, sending WTI up 5.93% to USD 92.54 and Brent up 4.24% to USD 97.79.
The cross-asset reaction was typical risk-off underneath the equity tape. The 10Y is net −9 BPS WoW to 4.47% but ticked back up Monday on the oil-led inflation impulse; the dollar was little changed at 99.05. The data leaned hawkish, ISM Manufacturing hit a four-year high of 54 with prices still elevated, keeping the path firm: ~99% hold priced for 17 June, but December now leans toward a hike (~50–60%) with cuts off the table.
If oil holds its gains and Friday’s payrolls print firm, the inflation re-acceleration trade re-tightens and December hike pricing keeps creeping higher, a headwind the AI bid has absorbed so far, but may not indefinitely.
On the crypto side:
A clean de-risking week and a sharp decoupling: BTC −8.53% to 70,229 (the worst-performing major) and ETH −5.44% to 1,983, both falling while Wall Street hit records. One of the drivers was BTC-specific flows, not a single headline, US spot bitcoin ETFs bled roughly USD 3.4 billion over an eleven-session outflow streak, capping the largest monthly ETF exodus of 2026, with BTC dominance slipping to 56.45%.
Technically, the bearish trigger we flagged last week fired. BTC lost the USD 74,000 shelf and the USD 73,869 0.236-Fib pivot and is now sitting on the ~USD 70,300 lower-channel trendline; sustained acceptance below opens the USD 67,000–68,000 volume shelf and re-arms the USD 65,000 cycle low. Sentiment took a further knock as Strategy disclosed its first BTC sale in four years, a token 32 BTC (~USD 2.5 million) to fund a preferred dividend, economically immaterial but symbolically loud, with MSTR off ~5% on the day. ETH/BTC nonetheless rose to ~0.0283 from ~0.0273, so the relative trade favored ETH even in a down week. Our BTC-over-ETH tilt lagged here because the redemptions are BTC-concentrated.
Nevertheless, pockets of strength stood out against the broad tape: XLM ripped ~+69% on news that DTCC will tokenize Wall Street securities on Stellar, while HYPE rallied ~+21% to fresh highs near USD 76 on strong volume, climbing straight into Saturday’s scheduled unlock rather than fading ahead of it.
If ETF redemptions persist and BTC closes below the ~USD 70,000 trendline, expect a test of the USD 67,000–68,000 shelf and continued BTC underperformance versus ETH and potentially other large-cap alts until flows stabilize.
Happy trading!
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