Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 76,659 / -3.67%
- ETHUSD: 2,253 / -2.21%
- US10Y: 4.92% / -5 bps
- DXY: 101.66 / -0.43%
- Gold (USD/oz): 3,906 / -2.42%
- SPX: 7,541 / -1.75%
- NDX: 27,989 / -4.38%
- VIX: 21.14 / +14.82%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
Tuesday, 03 November 2026: US JOLTs, US Midterm elections, Earnings: $AMD
Wednesday, 04 November 2026: EU CPI, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, US Crude Oil Inventories, Earnings: $ARM, $QCOM, $CRCL, $RIOT
Thursday, 05 November 2026: BoE Interest Rate Decision, US Initial Jobless Claims, Earnings: $NET, $PURR
Friday, 06 November 2026: US NFP
On the macro side:
With the major earnings releases and central bank decisions behind us, sentiment remains decisively weak. Hyperscaler free cash flow continues to deteriorate, outweighing some of the more constructive signals around the AI cycle, including Anthropic’s announced IPO plans and the extended memory cycle, with companies continuing to hold strong cash positions.
Attention now turns to the US Midterm elections. A Democratic sweep is generally seen as negative for risk assets, with greater downside for Republican-linked assets.
Once the Midterms are behind us, focus will quickly shift to NFP and developments around Iran.
On the crypto side:
The Binance hack continues to dominate the discussion. All things considered, the fact that the situation remains contained is remarkable given the reported scale of the incident. It is arguably the type of event that very few parties could have absorbed.
That said, we believe the current weakness in crypto is more reflective of the broader macro environment than of the hack itself, although the latter is clearly adding pressure.
On the technical side:
The more direct impact appears to be on exchanges, which are seeing larger outflows, particularly from trading firms. This should, all else equal, translate into higher funding rates as spot exposure is increasingly replaced with derivatives and firms reduce collateral held at risk on exchanges.
In theory, this substitution should be relatively neutral. In practice, these effects are rarely linear. We believe the combination of spot selling and corresponding derivatives exposure is contributing to the current downside pressure.
BTCUSD is now firmly trading below its 50-day EMA and is testing the key USD 76,400 area. USD 78,800 is the first meaningful resistance, while a break lower would bring USD 73,700 into focus as the next support.
The midterm elections are now viewed as the main short-term catalyst, with some analysts estimating a Democratic sweep could be worth around -2.5% for BTC. This event risk is also visible in options: 4NOV26 implied volatility is trading around 47v, versus approximately 39v for 6NOV26.
Skew remains negative and biased toward puts. However, we would be cautious about interpreting this purely as a directional market view. In our opinion, part of the skew continues to reflect the structural combination of call overwriting and downside put protection.
ETHUSD is showing a similar setup. USD 2,290 remains the immediate support, while the recent liquidation-driven low around USD 2,170 should provide a stronger support below.
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