Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 91,844 / +3.84
- ETHUSD: 3,131 / -6.35%
- US10Y: 4.40% / +6 bps
- DXY: 106.3 / 0.57%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 2622 / +0.58%
- SPX: 5,893 / -1.80%
- NDX: 20,539 / -2.69%
- DVOL: 59.82 / -2.25%
- VIX: 15.57 / 4.15%
Looking ahead – Economic calendar:
- Wednesday, 20 November 2024: US CPI October, NVDA earnings
- Thursday, 21 November 2024: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
- Friday, 22 November 2024: German GDP, provisional Manufacturing and Services PMI data
On the macro side:
After last week’s sell-off triggered by Jerome Powell’s remarks on interest rates and a rather hawkish stance, equities bottomed on Friday and have been slightly reversing ever since. With a light economic calendar this week, investors are shifting their focus to Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings report and potential appointments under the Trump administration.
Nvidia shares remain steady ahead of the report, which is expected to be a key catalyst for market movement.
The search for a Treasury secretary, with high-profile candidates like Scott Bessent (Key Square Group founder), Howard Lutnick (CEO Cantor Fitzgerald), Marc Rowan (Apollo Mgt CEO), and Kevin Warsh (former Federal Reserve Governor), is emerging as a potential key driver for markets. The role, vital for shaping financial policy, has drawn endorsements for Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick, both pro-crypto advocates. However, Lutnick stands out, given Cantor Fitzgerald’s role as a custodian of Tether’s Treasury holdings.
On the FX side:
The US Dollar Index is rising in tandem with equities, as attention shifts to the Federal Reserve’s December interest rate decision, with a 58% probability of a 25 bps cut.
EURUSD appears poised to stabilise after its recent decline. Rather than continuing lower, a break above 1.0610 could signal a shift into consolidation, indicating a pause in the downward trend.
On the crypto side:
Yesterday, the major headline was MicroStrategy’s announcement that it had acquired nearly $4.6 billion worth of BTC (51,780 BTC) in just a few weeks since the US election.
Additionally, an audio leak revealed Elon Musk stating he holds a significant amount of DOGE, while SpaceX owns a substantial amount of BTC. Meanwhile, rumours about Trump Media’s potential acquisition of crypto platform Bakkt caused shares of both companies to surge, with Bakkt being a prominent player in the market.
The OCC also confirmed that IBIT options would begin trading today, a development that could bring new market dynamics, particularly around options expirations and weekends.
Given the current environment and administration, it seems inevitable that more traditional financial giants will seek exposure to crypto and digital assets. This trend could support ETH, as crypto firms diversify their holdings and begin making fixed monthly allocations through BTC and ETH ETFs.
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