This week, new all-time highs (ATH) on BTC have been reached as it touched USD 99,000 during yesterday’s US session, and during this morning’s Asia session, we touched a new ATH above USD 99,500.
Microstrategy announced a USD 3 billion convertible bond issuance, an increase from the previously disclosed USD 2.6 billion, with proceeds largely allocated for additional BTC acquisitions. Despite this announcement, the stock fell 16% after Citron Research criticised its valuation as overheated.
Between the current price and USD 100,000, around 5,000 BTC in sell orders are stacked on the exchanges, while an additional 2,000 BTC is sitting around the USD1 01,000 mark. To clear the USD 100,000 resistance today, it would likely need strong spot BTC ETF inflows exceeding USD 600 million. With Michael Saylor raising funds to buy more BTC, there is potential for traders to front-run him, buying now with the expectation of selling to him once he starts purchasing.
If we fail to break through resistance, overleveraged longs could be forced to unwind, bringing support into focus at USD 97,000 and USD 95,000.
Regarding potential US Treasury Secretary nominees under Trump, Howard Lutnick seems to be out of the running, with Polymarket odds showing a 66% likelihood for Kevin Warsh and 14% for Scott Bessent. In my view, Bessent would be the top choice for crypto bulls, given his background and market understanding.
Yesterday, Solana hit a new all-time high just below USD 265, surpassing its previous cycle peak of around USD 260. This surge was fuelled by growing momentum around a potential SOL ETF in the US, with the SEC reviewing S-1 filings from VanEck, 21Shares, and Canary Funds. Bitwise expected to submit their application soon.
With spot gaining, BTC’s 30-day at-the-money (ATM) implied volatility rose from around 58% to 62% (+4% WoW), while ETH’s ATM implied volatility surged as spot gained momentum, from 62% to 71% (+9% WoW). The 25-delta skew increased further and is positive for both BTC and ETH across all time frames, with a slightly higher skew for BTC across all time frames. Yesterday’s ETH rally has caused the ETHBTC pair to exhibit positive skew across all time frames. Notably, the medium-term skew is more pronounced, signalling that traders are positioning for a potential reversal in the ETHBTC ratio and anticipating short- to medium-term outperformance by ETH.
On the macro side, it was a quiet week for events, with Tuesday’s focus on inflation data: Eurozone CPI remained steady at 2.0% YoY in October, while the UK surprised with a jump to 2.3% YoY from 1.7% in September, signalling stronger inflationary pressures.
Equities showed renewed confidence despite NVIDIA’s disappointing results, with major indices advancing and Asian futures trading higher this morning. On the commodities side, heightened Russian tensions kept gold and other assets in demand, offering indirect support to BTC trading.
This afternoon, eyes will be on preliminary US PMI data, which may offer early insights into economic momentum ahead of next week’s core PCE data, helping markets refine their expectations for the Fed’s mid-December rate decision.
Next week’s key macro events include:
- Tuesday, 26 November 2024: US CB Consumer Confidence Wednesday, 27 November 2024: US Preliminary Durable Goods Orders & US GDP (QoQ), Core PCE Price Index
- Thursday, 28 November 2024: Thanksgiving Day, Preliminary German CPI
- Friday, 29 November 2024, Thanksgiving Day (Early Close at 1 pm Eastern time), Preliminary EUR CPI, Chicago PMI, China Manufacturing PMI
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