Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 62,947 / -4.63%
- ETHUSD: 1,691 / -3.97%
- US10Y: 4.48% / +1 BPS
- DXY: 101.0 / +1.26%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,117 / -4.85%
- SPX: 7,472 / -1.08%
- NDX: 30,347 / -0.64%
- VIX: 19.68 / +21.4%
Looking ahead – weekly economic calendar:
- Wednesday, 24June 2026: US Crude Oil Inventories
- Thursday, 25 June 2026: US PCE, US Jobless Claims
On the macro side:
Post a slightly hawkish FOMC, risk assets are mildly softer. VIX back in the 20s, while VVIX (~91) remains low; COR3M at 8.55, close to all-time lows. Equities still hold up overall, though software names continue to struggle.
US–Iran deal progress ongoing as Trump put it: “Iran never won a war but never lost a negotiation.” We still see “higher inflation for longer” as the base case. Oil and gas normalization will take time but markets are largely shrugging it off. Light macro week ahead; Juneteenth is behind us. Sensitivity to US–Iran headlines remains, but not extreme.
Heading into summer we expect lighter developments if not AI IPOs.
On the crypto side:
Crypto softer WoW, with BTC underperforming ETH. BTCUSD sitting on support with weak upside demand; downside remains bid. 7d RV at ~30.5% (below median), while implied trades ~37.6%. Levels in focus: Resistance at USD 67,000, supports: current levels / USD 61,400 We expect range-bound between these levels.
Focus is still on Saylor:
- $STRC lost its peg and failed to recover post-dividend, now ~88.8 USD
- MSTR raising cash via equity issuance, weighing on price
- MSTR is down -17.8% WoW vs BTC -4.6%
- WoW: clear underperformance vs ~1.5 beta
We are not at a forced BTC selling yet, but: ~USD 1 billion converts due Sep-2027 ~USD 1.2 billion annual STRC obligations.
The clock is ticking.
ETH:
- Ongoing noise around Ethereum Foundation is building for next cycle, but explicitly deprioritizing price
- We still view ETH as the settlement layer, structurally strong
- But like commodities (except Gold): usage is different from price appreciation
- Not bearish per se but weak price does not imply weak fundamentals.
- Levels to watch: Support: USD 1,600 / strong at USD 1,500
- Resistance: USD 1,800 → USD 1,900 → USD 2,000
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