Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 98,265 / -0.85%
- ETHUSD: 2,707 / +0.52%
- US10Y: 4.50% / -6 bp
- DXY: 108.32 / -0.53%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 2,922 / +3.82% (!)
- SPX: 6,066 / +1.18%
- NDX: 21,756 / +2.05%
- DVOL: 53.33 / -5.28%
- VIX: 15.8 / -15.7 % (!!)
Looking ahead – Economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 11 February 2025: Powell’s testimony, Earnings: $SMCI
- Wednesday, 12 February 2025: US CPI, Powell’s testimony, Earnings: $RDDT, $HOOD
- Thursday, 13 February 2025: CH CPI, NFT Paris (1/2), US Jobs, US PPI, Earnings: $COIN
- Friday, 14 February 2025: NFT Paris (2/2), US Retail Sales, Token airdrop: $SAND (8.41% MC)
- Tuesday, 18 February 2025: 1st tranche of FTX repayments
On the macro side:
Trump’s impending tariffs on metals and related sectors are dominating the conversation, pushing everything else into the background.
While this undoubtedly adds uncertainty to the market, the VIX remains below 16, down 15.7% week-over-week. Something does not quite add up—does the market believe Trump’s statements are just a bluff?
Meanwhile, gold is shining once again.
Currently, my focus is on Powell’s testimony and the upcoming CPI data. Given last week’s hotter-than-expected figures, I expect the core CPI to come in above the forecasts.
On the FX side:
The US dollar remains dominant, with the DXY holding strong near local highs as markets price in just a single Fed rate cut for 2025—while most other central banks prepare for further easing. If this scenario unfolds, treasury costs for non-USD companies are set so soar.
That said, with the market positioned for only one rate cut, there is significant room for adjustment. In my view, even a single downward revision to the US jobs data could be enough to shift sentiment and spark a rally.
However, barring any surprises, the DXY seems to be comfortably anchored in this range. Focus here is on US figures.
On the crypto side:
Crypto underperformed US equities in the absence of specific catalysts, but BTC remains resilient and continues to find strong bids at previous lows.
Weekend news continues to trigger short-FOMO among algos and retail—moves that have repeatedly proven to be solid buying opportunities. My bias remains that the strong weekend price action is likely to be reversed due to low liquidity and lack of FX coverage. On the derivatives side, recent liquidations are still being digested. Futures open interest is in no man’s land, funding yields are approaching backwardation, and options are showing little interest in topside exposure. However, there is decent open interest around the 28MAR25 expiry, particularly at the BTC $120K strike. With implied vol near 55%, there is plenty of room for sharp moves.
Altogether, I like buying vol through low-delta options with up to 30-day tenors here.
Technically, BTCUSD looks strong, with USD 95,000 as a solid support and USD 100,000 as the key pivot for a higher move. The strong volumes on February 3rd suggest BTC is unlikely to drop below USD 90,000 unless SPX falls below 6,000.
Chart 1: BTCUSD 1d
Besides BTC, while the underperformance of ETH remains a talking point, the broader market is equally stagnant, with most altcoins stuck in a range. The OTHERS/BTC chart mirrors ETH/BTC, reinforcing the lack of momentum beyond the Top 10 names.
Chart 2: ETHBTC vs. OTHERS/BTC 1W
I still believe nothing is more bullish for crypto than a Trump presidency, and if US yields start to decline, these assets stand to benefit the most.
Side note: FTX repayments are coming. And that is a lot of “old crypto money.”
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