TA Tuesday: Crypto Roars Back

Week-over-week performance:   

• BTCUSD: 80,758 /+25.6% (!) 
• ETHUSD: 2,511 / +32.3% (!) 
• US10Y: 4.7% / +4 BPS 
• DXY: 99.07 / -0.59% 
• GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,652 / +5.7% 
• SPX: 7,652 / -1.2% 
• NDX: 29,023 / -3.24% 
• VIX: 15.84 / +4.35%

Looking ahead – economic calendar: 

• Tuesday, 25 August 2026: US New Home Sales 
• Wednesday, 26 August 2026: US PCE, Earnings: $NVDA, $CRWD, $CSHR 
• Thursday, 27 August 2026: US Jobless Claims, Earnings: $MRVL, $PURR 
• Friday, 28 August 2026: US Chicago PMI, Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (1/3) 
• Saturday, 29 August 2026: Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (2/3) 
• Sunday, 30 August 2026: Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (3/3)

On the macro side:

Equity markets traded lower week-over-week, with losses amplified through higher-beta segments. SPX fell 1.2%, NDX declined 3.2%, and SOX dropped 9.5%. This weakness came despite the U.S. Treasury’s announcement that it will increase the size of its long-end liquidity support buybacks starting on 9 September. 

While the exact actions remain somewhat unclear, the message is increasingly consistent: policymakers appear willing to intervene across the yield curve, having previously focused on the front end and now extending support further out the curve. 

A key level to watch remains 5.30% on the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield, which is currently trading around 5.23%. Despite the Treasury’s announcement, the USD is only marginally weaker week-over-week. Meanwhile, traditional stores of value have re-emerged as beneficiaries, with gold gaining 5.7%. 

This week’s focus revolves around three key themes: 

1. PCE inflation, expected once again at 3.3%, remaining well above the Fed’s target.
2. NVIDIA earnings, where the market is looking for roughly 2x year-over-year growth.
3. Jackson Hole, which is likely to provide further insight into policymakers’ thinking around growth, inflation, and fiscal sustainability. 

While PCE will likely drive short-term market pricing, NVIDIA remains the most closely watched earnings release given its influence on both AI and broader risk sentiment. The company has not missed earnings expectations since Q3 2022. Jackson Hole will also be closely followed, particularly for any discussion surrounding U.S. debt dynamics and the long-term fiscal outlook.

On the crypto side:

It finally feels like crypto again. 

Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market staged a strong relief rally, driven by two clear catalysts: the U.S. Treasury’s actions and renewed momentum from the SEC toward establishing a clearer regulatory framework for the industry. This rally unfolded against a backdrop that, as previously highlighted, was characterized by extremely light positioning and, in many cases, outright short exposure. As a result, the move higher was amplified by positioning and covering flows. 

BTC reclaimed the USD 80,000 level and is now trading within a new range, with USD 84,000 acting as the immediate resistance and USD 78,800 providing near-term support. At the same time, derivatives markets have begun to reprice. Volatility and skew have moved higher, while renewed participation has pushed both futures open interest and basis levels higher. The next few sessions remain critical, with USD 73,700 continuing to be the key level to hold for the broader medium-term bullish structure. 

Beyond Bitcoin, both Ethereum and Solana stand out as assets worth watching. ETH continues to trade constructively, and positioning still feels relatively light. Combined with recent changes within the Ethereum Foundation, sentiment has improved materially, and there is a growing sense that the market may finally be willing to reassess the ETH narrative. Technically, the next key upside level sits around USD 2,700, while USD 2,300 remains the main support. 

SOL has also re-entered the spotlight, supported by a ​number of ecosystem developments and major events​ taking place this week. The project appears well-positioned to benefit from any continuation of the current risk-on environment. 

Historically, crypto rallies have often been led by speculative meme activity before rotating into larger-cap assets. This cycle has so far unfolded differently, with major assets leading the recovery while many speculative tokens are still experiencing little more than relief bounces. If the strength in majors continues, a rotation into higher-beta on-chain activity and DEX speculation is likely to follow, with Solana remaining one of the best-positioned ecosystems to attract those flows. 

That said, Solana’s relative performance still shows some weakness, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum continuing to outperform on a relative basis.