Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 86,385 / -4.42%
- ETHUSD: 2,940 / -5.8%
- US10Y: 4.16% / -1 bps
- DXY: 98.3 / -0.81%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,286 / +2.58%
- SPX: 6,816 / -0.44%
- NDX: 25,067 / -2.2%
- VIX: 16.49 / -1%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 16 December 2025: US NFP, US Retail Sales, US Unemployement rate, US Avg Hourly Earnings
- Wednesday, 17 December 2025: EU CPI, Coinbase System Update Event
- Thursday, 18 December 2025: BoE Interest Rate Decision, ECB Interest Rate Decision, US CPI
- Friday, 19 December 2025: BoJ Interest Rate Decision
On the macro side:
This week is packed with macroeconomic developments, starting with today’s NFP release and continuing with major central banks announcing their interest rate decisions. Today’s NFP report offers the first comprehensive view of the U.S. labor market since September. This data will be a key driver of the Fed’s interest rate strategy heading into 2026.
However, in May 2026, Powell is set to be replaced – likely by either Warsh or Hassett. Trump has signaled that the next Fed Chair should consult closely with his administration on rate policy. We anticipate that Trump will aim to stimulate the economy through aggressive rate cuts, quantitative easing, or a combination of both.
While such measures would typically require a market downturn to justify, Trump may not feel the need for justification to inject momentum into the markets. Notably, his administration has already taken significant steps to support the crypto market, despite its weak performance in 2025.
Looking at Fed Funds futures, the implied rate for year-end 2026 is only about 50 basis points below current levels. While conditions could shift, we do not expect a major policy change until Trump’s nominee assumes the Fed Chair role.
On the crypto side:
Crypto remains under pressure, but much of the recent bearish move stems from thin market conditions. While this does not imply an imminent reversal, it is worth noting that price action unsupported by volume is rarely a strong signal. Unless we already are in a bear market.
On the other hand, in a year marked by the most accommodative U.S. administration toward crypto – combined with multiple institutional product launches and a prevailing dollar-debasement narrative – Bitcoin (and the others) has failed to capitalize on what seemed like ideal conditions.
Meanwhile, gold and other precious metals are shining, and the U.S. dollar continues to weaken, yet crypto lacks momentum. It is hard to argue that interest is fading, as adoption is clearly becoming more mainstream. However, given current market dynamics, we expect choppy price action in the near term.
BTCUSD:
As noted last week, USD 94,000 remains a major supply zone, while USD 84,000 offers only limited support. Volumes remain thin.
ETHUSD:
Rejected at USD 3,500 and now hovering around the USD 3,000 pivot. We expect demand to emerge closer to USD 2,800. This week’s Coinbase event could provide a short-term boost.
SOLUSD:
Despite leading the decentralized space, performance continues to disappoint.
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