Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 93,551 / +7.38%
- ETHUSD: 3,234 / +10.2%
- US10Y: 4.18% / +1 bps
- DXY: 98.2 / +0.20%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,468 / +3.17%
- SPX: 6,902 / -0.02%
- NDX: 25,401 / -0.24%
- VIX: 14.91 / +1.5%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Wednesday, 07 January 2026: EU CPI, US ADP Nonfarm Employment change, US JOLTS
- Thursday, 08 January 2026: CH CPI, EU Unemployment, US Jobless claims
- Friday, 09 January 2026: US Average hourly earnings, US NFP
On the macro side:
Stocks and bonds began the year largely flat, while precious metals continued to shine. The year opened with U.S. forces removing Maduro from Venezuela – an important milestone in President Trump’s second term and part of a broader strategy to “make America great again.”
From an investment perspective, I would not focus too much on Venezuela’s oil reserves or the immediate price impact on oil, energy, or inflation. Any meaningful contribution of Venezuelan oil to global markets is likely years away – perhaps two to five years at best – assuming Trump integrates Venezuela into U.S. influence and big oil companies secure agreements that guarantee political stability.
As some have noted, Venezuelan oil today is akin to finding oil on the moon. The real significance lies in the geopolitical dimension: this move is another calculated step in a much larger strategic plan.
Into the 2026 we believe the de-dollarization trend remains intact, while the AI-driven rally may soften this year. AI currently accounts for returns in only a small subset of S&P 500 companies, which saw explosive gains last year – even outperforming gold. This supports our view that the broader equity market trend remains resilient.
Similarly, we see gold’s upward move as intact for now, though more vulnerable since it appears driven primarily by government demand rather than private investors. This week’s main event is the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, which could influence expectations for the next rate cut.
Keep in mind that Trump will soon announce the new Fed Chair – and regardless of the data, rates are likely to move lower quickly.
On the crypto side:
Crypto kicked off the year on a strong note.
BTCUSD reclaimed the USD 90,000 level and encountered supply around USD 95,000. Short-term support sits near USD 92,600, and looking ahead, with rebalancing flows over the next six weeks, the USD 100,000 mark does not seem out of reach.
ETHUSD has also regained the USD 3,000 level and is currently holding support around USD 3,200. The 50-day EMA near USD 3,100 should provide additional support, while upside resistance is expected in the USD 3,300–USD 3,500 range. Altcoins– particularly memecoins– have staged a rebound after a major drawdown, kicking off with a classic “playbook” rally.
As always, memecoins tend to lead the charge before broader market rallies, a pattern worth noting. On the derivatives side, leverage remains muted, which should help sustain the current trend.
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