House View – January 2024

In the January edition of the Crypto Finance House View, we cover the following topics: 

Market Review & Outlook: The ₿ig ₿ang Theatre – SEC X Account Allegedly Hacked

This week has seen significant turmoil in the bitcoin ETF space, not just because of an approval, but because of the confusion surrounding it. First, reports of a bitcoin ETF approval emerged from the SEC’s X account, but there was no corroborating information on their official site or from the issuers. Then claims of a hack surfaced, casting doubt on the authenticity of the approval post, with suspicions that it may have been a premature leak. The lack of two-factor authentication on the SEC’s account lent credence to the hacking theory. The true nature of the incident remains uncertain, pending an official investigation.

The next day, an accidental leak from the CBOE hinted at an imminent approval, sparking further speculation. The SEC later confirmed the approval of the bitcoin ETF after market close, but the bitcoin price did not see any significant movement, while other cryptocurrencies such as ETH and SOL experienced rallies. This reaction aligns with our expectation (as shared in our December 2024 Outlook) that the market would be excited about potential future approvals of other crypto assets, and that these assets could lead to price actions in the immediate aftermath.

By Friedrich Herzog

Crypto Finance’s Trading Update: The SEC Has Approved the First Bitcoin Spot ETFs!

On 11 January, the SEC gave the green light to Bitcoin Spot ETFs from industry giants such as Grayscale, BlackRock iShares and Fidelity. This approval is a game changer, what is the Crypto Finance trading desk’s take on this achievement? How has it affected flows?

By Hektor Hof

Technical Analysis 

The year 2024 has started off successfully – the technical scenario has not changed: prices consolidated during December 2023, the anticipated approval of the ETF on Bitcoin in the US is now a reality, and the focus on altcoins continues. The fantasy of additional ETFs on ETH or other “blue chip cryptos” is supporting prices. “Buy the rumours, sell the facts” has not (yet) happened on BTC, and the chances for higher prices are still valid. The long-term RSI model has been long while RSI has consolidated above the trigger level at 53. The relative strength of ETH vs. BTC is starting to show signs of a reversal. We continue to monitor the situation and shift slightly from BTC to ETH with tight stop losses in our technical view.

By Michael Zbinden

Crypto Reads: “My Techno-Optimism” – Vitalik Buterin

The report is a thoughtful exploration by Vitalik Buterin, diving into the ongoing discourse surrounding techno-optimism. It revolves around Marc Andreessen’s manifesto advocating for technology’s potential to usher in a brighter future.

Buterin adds nuanced perspectives, aligning with techno-optimism while emphasising the necessity of steering technological advancements purposefully rather than solely pursuing profit.

He acknowledges the immense benefits technology has brought across various domains like medicine, information accessibility, and poverty reduction. However, Buterin also underscores concerns about specific technologies and their potential negative impacts, particularly in the context of the environment and climate change.

Despite an optimistic outlook on humanity’s capacity to address these challenges, Buterin stresses the crucial role of intentional human effort and coordinated action. He draws parallels with past successes in combating issues such as air pollution through deliberate actions and global collaboration, emphasising the need for similar concerted efforts to tackle environmental challenges posed by technological progress.

By Crypto Finance Editorial Team

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