Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 90,376 / +4.8%
- ETHUSD: 3,121 / +11.55%
- US10Y: 4.17% / +9 bps
- DXY: 99.1 / -0.34%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,178 / -1.22%
- SPX: 6,846 / +0.5%
- NDX: 25,627 / +1.57%
- VIX: 16.67 / -7.65%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 09 December 2025: ADP Employment Change, JOLTs Job Openings
- Wednesday, 10 December 2025: BoC Interest Rate decision, FOMC Interest Rate Decision
- Thursday, 11 December 2025: US Initial Jobless claims
On the macro side:
This week’s price action will be dominated by the FOMC rate decision, which is likely to set the tone for markets into year-end. Fed Funds futures currently imply an 87.2% probability of a 25 bps cut, which would bring the target range down to 350–375 bps.
For a sustained year-end rally, investors will also focus on potential changes in the Dot Plot. The current median projection for 2026 stands at 3.63%, and any shift lower would likely be supportive for risk assets.
On the crypto side:
Market recovery remains weak, with price action still unable to reverse the broader bearish trend. December trading volumes have been disappointing, even as BTC and other majors trade at lower or critical levels.
BTCUSD:
The mid-USD 80,000 region continues to act as support, with USD 87,000 as near-term support and USD 92,600 as initial resistance. Given the macro backdrop, supply is expected to emerge around USD 94,000–95,000, while demand should strengthen near USD 85,000.
ETHUSD:
ETH has shown a more constructive structure. A break above USD 3,200 could open a move toward the 50-day EMA near USD 3,300, while short-term support remains at USD 3,000.
SOLUSD:
Flows into US-listed SOL ETFs remain muted. Key support lies at USD 120; a breakdown could trigger a sharper bearish move. On the upside, the 50-day EMA at USD 150 is the level to clear for any meaningful recovery.
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