Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 95,365 / +0.95%
- ETHUSD: 3,604 / +5.66%
- US10Y: 4.21% / -8 bps
- DXY: 106.40 / -0.67%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 2,645 / +0.92%
- SPX: 6,047 / +1.00%
- NDX: 21,164 / +1.73%
- DVOL: 56.59 / -8.40%
- VIX: 13.33 / -8.76%
Looking ahead – Economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 03 December 2024: US Jolts, $MARA + $CORZ Convertible Bonds Issuance
- Wednesday, 04 December 2024: US ADP Nonfarm employment, US ISM, Fed chair Powell’s speech, $XRP launching $RLUSD (approved by NYDFS)
- Thursday, 05 December 2024: US jobless claims
- Friday, 07 December 2024: US NFP, US Avg hourly earnings
On the macro side:
Equities are climbing again after a soft performance last week. This week promises to be pivotal on the macro front with Fed Chair Powell’s remarks and the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release. Fed Fund Futures are now pricing a 72.5% probability of a 25 bps rate cut, and expectations for the longer term remain largely unchanged. At this point, we believe a 25 bps cut is likely priced in.
On the FX side:
The US 10-year yield dropped 8 bps week-over-week, pausing the broader US rally. The DXY found strong support at 105.8 and has since been consolidating below 106.7. Unless upcoming data surprises significantly, I remain inclined toward selling USD.
Chart 1: DXY 1d
On the crypto side:
The focus in crypto has finally shifted
away from bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies.
BTC dominance has pulled back to 55.8%,
with older names like XRP, ADA, LINK, and LTC making a resurgence. The market
is heating up, and the growing inflows into ETH ETFs highlight a rising
interest in assets beyond bitcoin—something we are also observing in the Desk’s
flow data.
BTC remains just under the USD 100,000
level.
As noted last week, the issuance of Convertible Bonds to finance BTC purchases is unlikely to slow until volatility diminishes. This trend is here to stay as companies like $MARA and $CORZ prepare for further acquisitions. Meanwhile, Microsoft shareholders are set to vote on adding BTC to the company’s balance sheet on December 10. This potential catalyst remains unpriced and could drive the next leg higher.
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