Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 60,957 / -7.13% (!)
- ETHUSD: 3,366 / -2.34% (!)
- US10Y: 4.24% / -4 bps
- DXY: 105.45 / +0.04%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 2,324 / +0.17%
- SPX: 5,448 / -0.45%
- NDX: 19,475 / -2.14%
- DVOL: 49.38 / +0.53%
- VIX: 13.34 / +4.71%
Looking ahead – Economic calendar:
- Wednesday, 26 June: US New Home Sales, Fed Bank Stress Test Results
- Thursday, 27 June: US Durable Goods Orders, US Jobs
- Friday, 28 June: UK GDP, US PCE, Fed Monetary Policy Report
On the macro side:
This week saw US equity indices give up some gains as NVDA dropped 16% from Thursday’s peak.
Treasuries were relatively stable, with the year-end expectations for the Fed’s target rate remaining at 475-500 bps, with a 50 bps cut expected.
The economic calendar is relatively light, but Wednesday’s Federal Reserve Bank Stress Test results may provide some insight into current credit conditions.
Macro traders are also focused on Friday’s US PCE data.
On the FX side:
The DXY remains steady, with EURUSD finding support at 1.07.
The Swiss National Bank’s 25 bps rate cut pushed EURCHF and USDCHF higher, but both are capped at 0.96 and 0.8946, respectively.
Consolidation at these levels is expected as we await the US PCE figures.
Chart 1: DXY 1d
On the crypto side:
What a week in crypto. Cryptocurrencies continue to show weakness, with BTC underperforming many others for the first time in a while.
Last week’s sell-off was driven by a lack of demand and excess supply, while Monday’s sell-off, which saw BTC fall to USD 58,500, was triggered by news that Mt. Gox will start repaying creditors beginning in July 2024.
Mt. Gox holds 141,000 bitcoins (USD 8.65 billion), and the German government is also set to liquidate a significant portion of the BTC 50,000 seized earlier this year.
While these events create short-term difficulties, they are beneficial in the medium term by reducing the uncertainty around large Bitcoin distributions in the market.
Such market adjustments often lead to new trends and more robust growth patterns. This reset is vital.
For instance, despite the FTX crash, Solana’s price recovered: from USD 8 in December 2023 to USD 135 today.
Interestingly, when Bitcoin dropped, ETH, SOL, and especially LDO performed strongly, with LDOETH up 28% WoW.
ETH is experiencing several positive catalysts, with increased activity on the CME ETH futures suggesting rising institutional interest; ETH volatility remains highly bid.
Looking at the charts:
BTCUSD support is at USD 59,000 with short-term resistance at USD 63,000.
The RSI-14 has finally reached oversold territory; could this be the bottom?
With a significant options expiry on Friday, with over BTC 7,000 contracts at USD 60,000, this level is likely to act as a magnet.
Chart 2: BTCUSD 1d
Read more News here
