Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 69,896 / +2.6%
- ETHUSD: 2,042 / +2.2%
- US10Y: 4.11% / +5 bps
- DXY: 98.72 / -0.06%
- GOLD (USD/oz): 5,175 / -2.62%
- SPX: 6,795 / -1.25%
- NDX: 24,967 / -1.18%
- VIX: 25.51 / +19%
Looking ahead – weekly economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 10 March 2026: US ADP Employment Change, Existing Home Sales, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- Wednesday, 11 March 2026: OPEC Monthly Report, US CPI, US Crude Oil Inventories
- Thursday, 12 March 2026: US Jobless Claims, US Exports/Import
On the macro side:
Geopolitics continue to dominate sentiment, driving attention and marginal price action. Even with light crude trading around USD 90/bbl, most non‑defensive equities remain largely unchanged.
Oil prices are undeniably a key economic driver, and for that reason we believe the U.S. administration will act aggressively to bring prices down quickly to avoid a spillover into the real economy. For reference, 10‑year oil futures are trading near USD 57/bbl, highlighting expectations of normalization. We are closely monitoring oil/gas deal activity and strategic reserve dynamics across countries (especially Cuba and China).
Equity markets in the U.S. and Europe saw some retracement, but chart‑wise it almost looks like nothing happened. The same cannot be said for volatility: cash VIX reached 35.3 on Monday, levels last seen in April 2025. These episodes typically take time to stabilize, and while we expect oil prices to fade from current levels, volatility may persist for a while.
On the crypto side:
Crypto markets held up relatively well, supported by factors such as excessive bearish positioning and momentum dynamics. As mentioned last week, the BTCUSD breakout above USD 70,000 extended toward USD 73,000, where it met strong resistance before retracing back to the mid‑range at USD 66,000. We believe the broader USD 62,000–USD 73,000 channel remains intact and could persist for some time.
In derivatives, Futures Open Interest and funding rates remain notably low, even during and after the move to USD 73,000.
Options markets continue to show strong bids for put. While this may not mark the ultimate bottom, put hedging and speculative downside protection remain expensive. We continue to see value in accumulating near the lower end of the range (~USD 62,000) and reducing exposure near the upper end (~USD 73,000).
Happy trading!
Read more News here
Investments in virtual currencies are high-risk investments with the risk of total loss of the investment and you should not invest in virtual currencies unless you understand the risks involved with such investments. No information provided in this article or any attachments shall constitute investment advice. Crypto Finance AG excludes its liability for any losses arising from the use of, or reliance on, information provided in this article or any attachments.