BTC tested its weekly high of USD 69,500 on Monday after the CME open, then dipped alongside equities to USD 65,200 on Wednesday. It rebounded to USD 68,800 and is currently trading around USD 67,700. BTC continues to trade in a range between USD 65,000-70,000, with a breakout requiring major catalysts. Support levels sit at USD 63,500 and USD 60,000 below, while a break above USD 70,000 could pave the way for new all-time highs.
ETHBTC has reached lows unseen since April 2021, now around 0.0368. Among majors, SOL has outperformed, with SOLBTC and SOLETH experiencing daily uptrends and showing relative strengths; SOLBTC faces major resistance at 0.0028 (now 0.00257) and could target March highs around 0.003. Given SOL’s relatively low market cap (3.62% of total crypto market cap vs. ETH’s 13.27% and BTC’s 59.1%), it may remain a promising long position.
Currently, Trump’s odds of winning the presidency are high at approximately 64% on Polymarket for the upcoming election in November, although traditional polling suggests a close race in swing states.
This morning’s significant options expiry, with high open interest around USD 70,000, has made a BTC breakout above this level unlikely. BTC’s 30-day at-the-money (ATM) implied volatility is around 55% (-1% WoW), while ETH remains stable at 60% (+0% WoW). The 25-delta skew for BTC is positive across all time frames, peaking in mid-December. In contrast ETH shows slight positive skew in the short- to medium-term, steepening in the long term — suggesting that ETH could start to run if BTC breaks above the USD 70,000 range and all-time highs.
On the macro side, this week has been relative quite calm. The US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed above 4.25% on Wednesday, marking its highest since last July, as Federal Reserve officials stressed caution in lowering rates, signalling that rates may remain elevated long term. At the same time, the US dollar Index increased to 104.5 from 100.2 in late September, driven by robust economic data, which, alongside rising Treasury yields, has weighted on risk assets. Yesterday’s Initial Jobless Claims and PMI data exceeded expectations.
Next week’s key economic events include the following:
- Tuesday: CB Consumer Confidence Index, JOLTS Job Openings
- Wednesday: Germany’s provisional Q3 GDP and CPI, US provisional Q3 GDP, China Manufacturing PMI, and BOJ Interest Rate Decision
- Thursday: US Core PCE Price Index, Chicago PMI
- Friday: NFPs, Unemployment Rate, and US Manufacturing PMI data
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