During yesterday’s New York session, bitcoin (BTC) broke through the critical USD 65,000 level, reaching a peak just below USD 65,900 before testing USD 64,700. This morning, options expiry saw significant Open Interest concentrated around the USD 65,000 strike, with over 30% of total OI expiring on Deribit.
Improved liquidity is fuelling positive sentiment, with BTC ETF inflows remaining strong—USD 365 million yesterday and over USD 612 million for the week. In contrast, ether (ETH) continues to be less attractive to traditional finance investors, with total weekly inflows of only USD 26.3 million. The ETH/BTC pair pulled back from its local highs of 0.0425 to 0.0405. If the bullish trend persists, I expect altcoins and ETH to outperform BTC; however, if the breakout does not get confirmed Iand we stay in choppy markets I prefer BTC over ETH.
BTC’s next resistance levels are around USD 67,000, followed by USD 68,000, with USD 70,000 coming into view. On the downside, the first support level is around USD 64,000 (daily EMA100 bands), followed by USD 63,000 (daily EMA200 bands) with a potential test of the USD 61,800 levels.
The Chinese stimulus package has boosted market optimism, with the CSI yesterday registering its highest daily gain in a decade. Other markets, including Hong Kong, Japan, and emerging markets, also edged higher.
Better-than-expected US jobless claims (218K vs. 224K forecast) and Durable Goods orders (0.0% vs. -2.8% forecast) may delay the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, to which markets responded positively, easing concerns over a hard landing. This is further supported by the US 10-2 Year Treasury spread turning positive and widening to 17 basis points (up 20 bps since the start of the month), a typical indicator of optimism and support for risk assets in the medium to long term.
This week, Kamala Harris took a positive stance on AI and digital assets in two public statements, suggesting that a potential presidency under her leadership could be more favourable to crypto than previously expected.
BTC’s 30-day at-the-money (ATM) implied volatility held steady for the second consecutive week at 51% (unchanged week-on-week), while ETH saw a modest decline from 60% to 58% (-2% WoW). The 25-delta skew for BTC has steepened over longer timeframes, while option traders remain cautious in the 0–7-day range. For ETH, caution is more pronounced, with a negative 25-delta skew in the 0–30-day timeframes but a higher skew than BTC for expiries between March and mid-2025.
On Tuesday, the CB’s Consumer Confidence Index revealed a drop in US consumer sentiment for September, falling to 98.7 from 105.6 in August, below the forecast of 103.9.
Later today, focus will shift to the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index, which is expected to rise by 2.7% year-on-year, offering clues on the Fed’s rate cut trajectory.
Next week is set to be busy with key economic events: China’s Manufacturing PMI on Sunday night, Germany’s provisional CPI and the US Chicago PMI on Monday, and the Eurozone’s provisional CPI, US Manufacturing PMI, and JOLTS Job Openings on Tuesday. Wednesday will bring the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, followed by US Services and Non-Manufacturing PMI on Thursday. The week will conclude with Nonfarm Payrolls and US Unemployment rates on Friday.
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