House View – April 2023

In the latest edition of the Crypto Finance House View, we cover the following topics:

Market Review & Outlook

After starting the year strong, crypto markets continued their positive performance during the month of March. Narratives, which explain the recent performance, range from bank-run driven flights to “outside money,” to a Fed-pivot induced risk-on sentiment switch that ultimately affects all risk assets. In our view, we see a combination of these factors driving the current market behavior of digital assets.

By Friedrich Herzog

Technical Analysis

BTC/USD has created a so-called “inverse head and shoulder formation,” which is viewed as a potential reversal pattern. It has been monitored by many market participants of late. This article explains some measuring techniques, and discusses potential scenarios as a technical forecast. In addition, it includes a long-term chart of BTC, a relative chart of ETH/BTC, and features an analysis of a “coin in focus” – a selected constituent in our financial product offering. Regular updates will be published in future releases of “House View”.

By Michael Zbinden 

Have the Failures in Traditional Banking Weakened Digital Assets?

The recent collapses of Silvergate Bank (SI), Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and Signature Bank (SBNY), have wreaked havoc on financial markets. Silvergate and Signature were notorious for being “cryptofriendly” institutions, providing most of the digital asset industry’s participants with USD bank accounts. SVB, in addition to banking half of US start-ups, also held funds for many digital asset companies, including Circle, issuer of USDC, a $40bn market capitalised stablecoin. Now that all three banks have failed, the digital asset industry is left to operate in an environment which lacks proper on/off-ramps between fiat (particularly USD) and cryptocurrencies. Does the industry’s limited access to USD banking weaken it, or can it persevere without traditional banks by using alternative methods? This is what we aim to uncover in this analysis.

By William Ery

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All information in this document is provided for general information purposes only and with no warranty or liability for accuracy, completeness, or fitness for a particular purpose. No information provided in this document constitutes or is intended as investment advice. This document is not, and is not intended as, an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to invest in financial instruments including crypto assets. Crypto Finance is a financial group supervised by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA on a consolidated basis with Crypto Finance AG as a securities firm and Crypto Finance (Asset Management) AG as an asset manager for collective investments with the corresponding FINMA licenses. This document and its content including any brand names, logos, designs, and trademarks, and all related rights, are the property of the Crypto Finance Group and Deutsche Börse Group. They may not be reproduced or reused without their prior consent.

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