Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 112,673 / -2.62%
- ETHUSD: 4,185 / -7.39% –
- US10Y: 4.15% / +11 bps
- DXY: 97.35 / 0.14%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 3,747 / +1.71% (!)
- SPX: 6,693 / +1.18%
- NDX: 24,761 / +1.93%
- VIX: 16.09 / +2.61%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 23 September 2025: Powell’s Speech
- Wednesday, 24 September 2025: US Building permits, US Home Sales
- Thursday, 25 September 2025: SNB Interest Rate Decision, BoJ Meeting Minutes, US Jobless claims
- Friday, 26 September 2025: US PCE
- Sunday, 28 September 2025: $JUP unlocks 1.75% MC (USD 26 million)
On the macro side:
The Fed cut rates as expected, with Powell making it clear that a 50 bps move is off the table. He emphasized that inflation remains elevated and sticky.
This week, Powell’s remarks and the Core PCE release will be pivotal. If inflation pressures look contained, markets may view this as scope for further Fed cuts – potentially providing liquidity tailwinds into Q4. That could act as the catalyst for risk assets, led by crypto, to attempt a long-awaited breakout.
Fed Funds futures now price the year-end target rate at 350–375 bps (50 bps cut) and the end of next year at 300–325 bps (100 bps cut).
On the crypto side:
Week-over-week, crypto underperformed both risk assets and gold last week, with Monday the 22nd marking the largest single-day liquidation of 2025 – USD 1.7 billion wiped out.
While exchanges have recently improved how they report liquidation data (which inflates the figures somewhat), the move was still brutal.
There was not a clear catalyst – it was primarily a crypto-driven move – though excessive long positioning amplified the sell-off.
This came just days after the Aster and Avantis moves.
We continue to stress that leverage flushes are ultimately healthy, even if conviction remains weak.
BTCUSD: Found soft bids around USD 112,000, with immediate resistance near USD 114,000. If markets turn lower, we expect BTC to show relative resilience, with USD 110,000 as solid support.
ETHUSD: Good bids around USD 4,000; the gap with the 50-day EMA has closed, which we see as constructive. Resistance sits near the USD 4,400 trendline.
SOLUSD: One of the hardest hit in the downturn. Still needs to close the gap with its 50-day EMA, which should offer support around USD 210.
AVAX: Worth flagging for its relative performance.
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