TA Tuesday: Macro momentum is fading

At the time of writing, the total crypto market cap is $983.55 B.
BTC: $21,000 (-12.78% WoW)
ETH: $1,575 (-16.96% WoW)
SOL: $34.46 (-21.13 WoW)

Momentum is fading as macro concerns (Taiwan-China, EU energy crisis, US mid-term elections, etc.) and take-profit actions ahead of the major events are weighing on the risky assets.

This week’s major macro events are both on Friday:
1. Core PCE Price Index (July) (cons: 0.3% MoM, prev. 0.6% MoM)
2. JPow will speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium

This data and further info from the Fed may confirm that inflation has peaked, and that the worst is behind us. Having said that, though, the prospect of a major tightening continues being realistic.

On the crypto side:
The strong momentum is also fading as both BTC and ETH were unable to break key resistance levels. The total crypto market cap is – once again – below $1T.

Looking at the chart:
1d Heikein Aishi candles called a reversal this week as the open/close spread is very tight.

The 200W moving average keeps being the support and my entry point.

A short-term rally towards $1.2T is plausible, but I would expect the market to keep being range-bounded going into the merge.

Chart 1: Total Crypto Market Cap

Currently, ETH is the protagonist and the major crypto catalyst.

After a +130% rally, it has been unable to break the $2,000 resistance as well as the 0.08 level against BTC.

The high volatility in the options market coupled with the greater spot volumes in major CEXs show that there is both retail and institutional interest.

Chart update:
ETH did not break the resistance, and broke the channel to the downside accepting a bigger step back towards $1,200.

Chart 2: ETHUSD 1d

The EU and the EUR are moving further into a crisis, and what we are actually seeing is an inflationary collapse of a fiat currency against commodities (and the countries who control them …)

At the moment, I am waiting for the debt crisis to also step in.

Looking at the chart:
Double bottom failed to hold, and the next support is at 0.99 USD.

There might be some optimism here and there, but given the scenario with the EUR below USD, parity is reasonable.

Chart 3: EURUSD 4h

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