Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 83,110 / +3.58%
- ETHUSD: 1,907 / +0.65%
- US10Y: 4.30% / -3 bps
- DXY: 103.5 / -0.26%
- GOLD (USD/OZ) : 3,017 / +3.97% (!)
- SPX: 5,675 / +1.32%
- NDX: 19,812 / +2.10%
- DVOL: 53.26 / -11.16%
- VIX: 20.86 / -25.34% (!)
Looking ahead – Economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 18 March 2025: US Building permits, $NVDA GTC AI Conference (2/5), Trump speaking to Putin on Ukraine, DAS Blockworks NY (1/3)
- Wednesday, 19 March 2025: EU CPI, FOMC, $NVDA GTC AI Conference (3/5), DAS Blockworks NY (2/3)
- Thursday, 20 March 2025: BoE interest rate decision, SNB interest rate decision, US Existing home sales, $NVDA GTC AI Conference (4/5), DAS Blockworks NY (3/3)
- Friday, 21 March 2025: OpEX, $NVDA GTC AI Conference (5/5)
- Sunday, 23 March 2025: Greyscale $SOL ETF approval: 2nd deadline
On the macro side:
The US CPI came in softer than expected, but the initial bullish sentiment quickly faded. Notably, this was the last CPI release before the effects of tariffs began to be felt. Starting next month, we will see the true impact of the trade war on prices and consumers.
The VIX saw a bullish retracement, with a key level to watch being below 20, signalling a more favourable environment for risk assets. In addition, we saw decent flows into short-vol products in the market when the VIX traded between 21 and 25. Are we having a V-shaped performance in risk assets?
Amid the ongoing uncertainty, gold is once again pushing toward new highs.
The S&P 500 has found support at 5,504, with 5,650 acting as a critical inflection point. Holding above this level in today’s and tomorrow’s sessions – especially post-FOMC – will be crucial for a further leg higher and will be closely watched.
With a packed week of market-moving events, volatility remains elevated.
Eyes on the FOMC – I would be surprised to hear any language aimed at supporting the capital markets. The economy remains strong, but inflation is still not where it needs to be.
On the FX side:
DXY has retraced and is not in the range sub104. Eyes are on the SNB and BoE. Expecting a lower USD.
On the crypto side:
Several narratives have emerged over the past week, but overall, the market continues to trade like a leveraged Nasdaq.
Over the weekend, low volume allowed a trader to push the market lower with a USD400M+ bet against bitcoin, which attracted a lot of attention. However, it is important to remember that we do not know whether this trader holds offsetting positions elsewhere.
In the altcoin space, notable weekly top performers include $CRV, $XRP, $SUSHI, and $LINK, while other names have been trading largely in beta terms.
On the futures side, open interest remains in no man’s land, as does demand for leverage. A spot-driven move will be needed to build meaningful upside exposure.
In the volatility market, 30-day DTE options are trading relatively cheap compared to historical realised volatility. However, given the recent VIX movement, implied volatility should fall further as the market stabilises. Conversely, another leg lower in the market would likely trigger a volatility spike. This uncertainty has kept directional vol positioning in limbo, as reflected in the lack of significant flow on that front.
On the spot side, BTCUSD remains weak, with the reference market trading in a range of USD80,000–USD86,000.
Amid this broader uncertainty, we expect BTC dominance to break higher. Current BTC dominance: 61.7%.
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