Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 102,538 / 8.58%
- ETHUSD: 2,457 / 36.27% (!)
- US10Y: 4.46 / +9bps
- DXY: 101.62 / 1.84%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 3,255 / -3.21%
- SPX: 5,829 / 3.50%
- NDX: 20,868 / 4.51%
- VIX: 18.39 / -22.21%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 13 May 2025: US CPI, Trump visits Middle East
- Thursday, 15 May 2025: US PPI, US Jobless claims, US Retail Sales, Powell Speech (Washington, D.C.)
- Friday, 16 May 2025: US Building Permits
On the macro side:
Markets entered the week on a strong note following a major breakthrough in US–China trade relations. The news triggered a global risk-on rally yesterday, with the S&P 500 gaining 3.22% and the Nasdaq rising over 4%.
The truce also sparked a sharp selloff in defensive assets: bond yields rose across the curve, with the US10Y rising by 9bps. Supporting this notion, Gold is down –3.21% and VIX –22.21% on the week. Markets are increasingly pricing out aggressive Fed rate cuts, as improving macro sentiment and potential inflation pressures take hold.
The sentiment shift sets a constructive backdrop for the week ahead, where the focus will be on US inflation data, retail sales figures, and the speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. If the de-escalation in global trade tensions continues—potentially extending to other key economies—the risk-on attitude is likely to persist, supported by both political relief and improving macro data.
On the crypto side:
Crypto markets rallied strongly, led by altcoins, which broadly outperformed BTC and pushed BTC dominance down from 65.38% to 62.94% at the time of writing. During the week, BTC briefly traded just below USD 106,000 before consolidating around USD 102,000 by Monday, while ETH surged to USD 2,625—marking a week-over-week gain of over 36.27%.
The ETHBTC spread rose sharply by 25.91%, from 0.01919 to 0.02415, underscoring a clear market rotation towards Ethereum and other majors. Still, over the past 2.5 years, a bullish weekly ETHBTC candle has often been followed by a selloff — whether that pattern holds this time remains to be seen.
Funding rates for BTC and the broader crypto space turned firmly positive across major exchanges as traders chased the breakout. Notably, as can be seen in Chart 1, USD 106,000 stands out as a near-term liquidation cluster, suggesting that if BTC continues higher, it could trigger a wave of forced buybacks that adds fuel to the move. However, if momentum stalls, it risks becoming a local top as traders front-run potential reversals.
From a technical perspective, BTC faces a set of critical levels in the upcoming days. The psychological barrier and former all-time high around USD 109,000 remains the next major upside target, with USD 106,000 acting as a potential short squeeze zone. On the downside, the USD 100,000 round number serves as the first line of psychological support, followed by key Fibonacci retracement levels at around USD 98,000 (0.236) and USD 93,900 (0.382) (see Chart 2). Price action around these zones will likely determine whether this rally can extend—or if we see a deeper pullback first.
Chart 1: BTCUSDT Liquidation Heatmap according to coinank.com
Chart 2: Key BTC levels in the medium-term future
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