Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 118,080 / +0.29%
- ETHUSD: 3,691 / +17.81%
- US10Y: 4.39% / -11bps
- DXY: 97.97 / -0.66%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 3,385 / +1.85%
- SPX: 6,306/ +0.97%
- NDX: 23,180 / +1.29%
- VIX: 16.64 / -4.28%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 22 July 2025: Fed Chair Powell speech
- Wednesday, 23 July 2025: US Existing Home Sales (June)
- Thursday, 24 July 2025: ECB Rate Decision & Press Conference
- Friday, 25 July 2025: US Durable Goods Orders (June)
On the macro side:
Markets posted another strong week, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 extending their record highs, rising 1.29% and 0.97% respectively. As earnings season kicked off, corporate results came in better than expected, particularly in the financial sector. So far, over 80% of reporting S&P 500 firms have beaten expectations, led by strong upside surprises from banks, while major upcoming reports from tech giants remain in focus. Investor sentiment was further supported by resilient economic data: retail sales exceeded expectations, and inflation data aligned with forecasts, easing concerns about any near-term overheating. At the same time, Fed officials, including Governor Waller, hinted at potential policy easing later this year, helping push the 10-year yield down -11bps to 4.39%. Despite trade tensions resurfacing after President Trump announced new tariffs on EU and Mexican imports starting August 1, markets remained largely unfazed.
Dollar weakness and safe-haven demand also played a role last week. The DXY fell -0.66%, while Gold rallied almost 2% to USD 3,3385/oz—its highest level since roughly a month. Volatility continued to drift lower, with the VIX down 4.28% to 16.64.. That said, this week includes a several key macro events to watch—including Fed Chair Powell’s speech, initial jobless claims, and the ECB rate decision and press conference. Any dovish surprise from the ECB (unlikely) or signs of U.S. labor market weakness could reinforce the easing narrative. While momentum remains positive for now, thin summer liquidity and stretched positioning leave markets vulnerable to shifts in tone or data surprises.
On the crypto side:
The past week was largely driven by an altcoin rally, while Bitcoin consolidated around the USD 118,000 mark. Ethereum stood out with a particularly strong performance—its dominance rose from approximately 10.3% to 11.6%, signaling broader market rotation into ETH. Option markets reflected bullish sentiment as well: the 7-day ATM 25-delta risk reversal for ETH remained elevated in the high single-digit range, indicating stronger demand for calls over puts. Supporting the rally, ETH ETFs recorded record-breaking inflows of USD 726.6 million on Thursday, July 16. Notably, on Friday, ETH inflows even surpassed those of BTC. At the time of writing, ETH is experiencing a modest pullback from its recent high of USD 3,850 to around USD 3,650.
From an all-time high perspective, the picture across altcoins remains mixed. ETH is currently trading about 31% below its ATH, while others like SOL and LTC are still lagging further behind—down roughly 48% and over 250% (!), respectively. In contrast, XRP made headlines by breaking into uncharted territory, surpassing its previous ATH and reaching over USD 3.66 this past week. If the broader crypto rally continues, it’s likely that select altcoins could challenge, or even exceed, their former highs. The key question, however, is which coins remain relevant in this cycle, and which are simply remnants of previous bull markets.
As for Bitcoin, price action on the 4-hour chart shows a consolidation within a symmetrical triangle (see chart below) —a neutral pattern often interpreted as a continuation flag. I believe a decisive breakout appears imminent in the coming days, which could set the tone for the next directional move across the crypto space—whether to the upside or as a broader correction.
Chart: BTC/USD 4h Candles – Consolidation Within Symmetrical Triangle
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