Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 97,020 / +1.74%
- ETHUSD: 3,719 / +3.19%
- US10Y: 4.19% / -3 bps
- DXY: 106.05 / -0.32%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 2,668 / +0.87%
- SPX: 6,052 / +0.08%
- NDX: 21,440 / +1.30%
- DVOL: 60.05 / +6.11%
- VIX: 14.19 / +6.45%
Looking ahead – Economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 10 December 2024: $MSFT vote to buy $BTC, $GME earnings, $SUSHI reveals roadmap
- Wednesday, 11 December 2024: US CPI, BoC Interest rate decision
- Thursday, 12 December 2024: SNB Interest Rate decision, ECB interest rate decision, US jobs, US PPI
- Friday, 13 December 2024: Nasdaq-100 addition announcement ($MSTR, $COIN)
- Sunday, 15 December 2024: FASB rule change for $BTC holdings on $MSTR balance sheet
On the macro side:
Despite a “red Monday,” equities ended the week in the green, showing resilience. Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report highlights a rebound from October’s weak figures.
This week brings CPI, PPI, and significant central bank decisions. Barring surprises in inflation or policy, a 25 bps Fed rate cut is likely next week.
Key developments:
- $MSFT to vote on buying bitcoin, and Amazon shareholders may propose converting 5% of assets to bitcoin in 2025.
- $MSTR plans to adopt FASB rules to include unrealised bitcoin gains in earnings.
- Watch for potential Nasdaq-100 inclusion of $MSTR and $COIN.
On the FX side:
The DXY remains around 106, awaiting key confirmations this week. I continue to anticipate a weaker USD ahead.
Chart 1: DXY 1d
On the crypto side:
BTC broke above USD 100,000 and ETH crossed USD 4,000 before pulling back on Monday.
At these levels, erratic price swings are likely, but I expect consolidation. There is strong year-end positioning for BTC in the USD 90,000- USD 100,000 range, and I expect prices to remain “comfortable” here through year-end.
This makes current levels attractive for accumulation. With elevated volatility, I also see renewed value in short-vol strategies. The same applies to ETH, where I anticipate increased activity and inflows as we move into the new year.
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