Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 79,577 / -2.81%
- ETHUSD: 2,304 / -4.12%
- US10Y: 4.97% / -15 bps
- DXY: 102.1 / 0.32%
- Gold (USD/oz): 4,003 / -3.11%
- SPX: 7,676 / -0.2%
- NDX: 29,273 / -0.86%
- VIX: 18.41 / -0.10%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 27 October 2026: Israeli legislative elections start, Earnings: $SKHY, $V, $HOOD, $GLXY
- Wednesday, 28 October 2026: RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, BoC Interest Rate Decision, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Earnings: $MSFT, $GOOGL
- Thursday, 29 October 2026: US PCE, ECB Interest Rate Decision, Earnings:$AMZN, $INTC, $CAT, $SHEL, $TTE, $SNDK, $MSTR, $COIN
- Friday, 30 October 2026: BoJ Interest Rate Decision, Earnings: $XOM, $CVX, $BP, $CBOE
On the macro side:
Sentiment remains weak heading into one of the busiest weeks of the year, with five G10 central banks deciding on rates, more than a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, and elections in Brazil and Israel adding to the macro noise.
$SKHY should give us an early read on the AI trade, while $HOOD and $GLXY will provide further color on the crypto ecosystem.
Wednesday’s Fed meeting is the key macro event. We expect rates to remain unchanged, so the focus will be on the dot plot and any shift in the forward path. Markets currently price a ~90% probability of a skip, followed by a December hike and two further hikes by year-end 2027, taking the target range to 4.50–4.75%.
Beyond that, focus should shift to other AI names, the Supermajors, and crypto-related equities such as $MSTR and $COIN.
On the crypto side:
Crypto is following the broader risk-off tone. BTCUSD has lost USD 80,000 and is approaching support around USD 78,800, while ETHUSD is now roughly 150 points below its 50-day EMA.
Derivatives remain relatively resilient. Open interest and funding are still firm, suggesting the sell-off has not materially caught leveraged positioning off guard. In options, 1-month BTC IV remains around 36%, while the 25-delta risk reversal continues to trade at roughly 4 vols in favor of puts, showing that vol-sell is dominant.
We expect this week’s macro and earnings volatility to spill over into crypto.
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