Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 76,882 / +1.34%
- ETHUSD: 2,285 / -1.24%
- US10Y: 4.35% / +10 BPS
- DXY: 98.6 / +0.54%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,632 / -4%
- SPX: 7,123 / +0.8%
- NDX: 27,305 / +2.41%
- VIX: 18.02 / -8%
Looking ahead – weekly economic calendar:
Tuesday, 28 April 2026: US CB Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, 29 April 2026: BoC Interest Rate Decision, FOMC
Thursday, 30 April 2026: EU CPI, BoE Interest Rate Decision, ECB Interest Rate Decision, US PCE
Friday, 01 May 2026: Labor day
On the macro side:
SPX and NDX printed fresh all‑time highs, with SPX now in line with its median return over the past 10 years. The MAG7 are starting to catch up but remain underperformers versus the broader benchmark, while semiconductors continue to stand out as the clear outperformers.
The USD remains marginally weaker, with the US 30Y trading at 4.958%. VIX continues to grind lower, moving into the summer seasonality that has historically been associated with subdued volatility.
This week brings multiple central bank rate decisions, with the Fed firmly in focus. The current market-implied year‑end Fed funds target of 350–375 suggests no rate changes through year‑end. Any shift in the dot plot is likely to be the initial catalyst, with Powell’s commentary driving the follow‑through.
Overall, we expect sharp moves around the event, which should be faded in either direction.
On the crypto side:
Performance is mixed, with BTCUSD rejected twice over the past six days at the USD 80,000 level. The new range defines a lower bound at USD 73,700, with immediate support in the USD 76,000–76,700 area.
ETHUSD has generally underperformed, with resistance at USD 2,410 and the 50day EMA providing support near USD 2,200, keeping price action compressed within a tight range. SOL remains a laggard. With DEX activity trending lower across timeframes, relative performance is expected to stay weak.
We continue to see revenue‑generating projects leading price action, with names such as SKY (formerly MKR) quietly outperforming.
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