Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 63,200 / +6.3%
- ETHUSD: 1,772 / +11.5%
- US10Y: 4.5% / +13 BPS
- DXY: 100.95 / -0.35%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,127 / 3.15%
- SPX: 7,537 / +1.3%
- NDX: 29,697 / -0.25%
- VIX: 15.56 / -11.9%
Looking ahead – weekly economic calendar:
- Wednesday, 08 July 2026: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision, US Crude Oil Inventories, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting minutes
- Thursday, 09 July 2026: US Jobless claims
On the macro side:
The weak Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) print had only a limited impact on price action, suggesting that macroeconomic releases are no longer the market’s primary focus.
Over the past week, we observed a divergence within equities: the S&P 500 continued to grind higher, while the Nasdaq-100 underperformed. SPCX joins the Nasdaq-100 today via the Fast Entry mechanism. ETFs tracking the index accumulated shares into Monday’s close, yet the inclusion has so far failed to generate any meaningful follow-through in the stock price.
Across hyperscalers and AI/data-related names, the key concern appears to be valuation multiples, but perhaps more importantly, the growing disconnect between capex and free cash flow. Infrastructure spending continues to accelerate, while the expected monetization is yet to materialize. In practical terms, many of these companies will eventually need to demonstrate how their AI investments can generate sufficient returns and support ongoing operating costs. While valuations remain elevated in parts of the market, high valuations alone do not necessarily imply a bubble.
However, momentum in certain names becomes extreme. SNDK’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached 99.25, the highest reading in Nasdaq history, highlighting just how stretched some moves have become and reminding investors that volatility should be expected. Broadly speaking, market conditions remain constructive. Oil continues to trend lower and, equally importantly, the decline in geopolitical and energy-related headlines has reduced a significant source of uncertainty for risk assets. Rates remain an important watchpoint. The US 2-year Treasury is pricing roughly two hikes from current policy rates, while the US 30-year yield remains uncomfortably close to the 5% level.
Looking ahead, the RBNZ decision should provide a useful gauge of global rate expectations, while the release of the FOMC minutes may offer additional insight into the Fed’s reaction function.
On the crypto side:
Saylor sold 3,588 BTC and Bitcoin is trading higher regardless.
From a purely technical perspective, BTCUSD continues to trade within a well-defined range. Buyers have consistently emerged around the USD 58,000 area, while resistance remains concentrated in the USD 62,000-USD 64,000 region. The broader price structure still consists of lower highs and lower lows, pointing toward a period of summer consolidation with a slight downside bias rather than the start of a sustained trend.
Importantly, Saylor has finally become a seller. While the headline initially triggered a roughly 3% move lower, the reaction was largely driven by speculative flows. Transactions of this size are typically executed over-the-counter (OTC) and extensively hedged well before public disclosure. By the time the market receives the announcement, the underlying exposure has usually already been absorbed.
More broadly, Bitcoin remains a highly liquid market. For context, average hourly volume on the Binance BTC perpetual contract alone is often around 7,000 BTC. While perpetual futures volumes are not equivalent to spot volumes and certainly include non-economic activity, the broader point remains valid: Bitcoin is sufficiently liquid to absorb sizeable flows without materially disrupting the market.
The more interesting question is whether this sale represents an isolated event or the beginning of a broader trend. My impression is that this is unlikely to be a one-off event and could instead be the first of many. As MicroStrategy continues to issue preferred and yield-bearing instruments backed by its Bitcoin strategy, the company increasingly needs to generate cash to service dividends and other obligations. In that context, periodic Bitcoin sales may gradually become a feature of the structure rather than an exception.
More broadly, I keep arguing that MSTR and its growing ecosystem of preferred securities have become too central to the Bitcoin narrative. Bitcoin is a global asset class with deep liquidity, institutional participation, and ETF adoption. It should not revolve around the financing decisions of a single corporate balance sheet. While this may be an unpopular view, I would prefer to see less emphasis on increasingly complex financing structures and more focus on the asset itself.
This leads to the question many are asking: if ETFs are seeing outflows and Saylor has become a seller, who are the marginal buyers? It is a fair question, and the answer may be that there are currently fewer natural buyers than in previous phases of the cycle.
That said, Saylor has not abandoned his long-term Bitcoin strategy. He is not selling because he has turned bearish; he is selling because he needs to generate cash. Since the dividend burden attached to these instruments represents only a fraction of the underlying Bitcoin holdings, only a relatively small portion of the position needs to be monetized. In that regard, the market’s ability to absorb the recent sale relatively easily may ultimately be viewed as constructive.
Derivatives positioning has improved marginally, but range trading remains firmly in place. Resistance is clustered around USD 64,000-USD 65,000, while USD 61,400 remains the strongest nearby support level. The fact that Bitcoin is trading higher despite the sale arguably suggests that the market had already discounted much of the flow and may be more resilient than many initially expected.
Outside of Bitcoin, price action has been broadly constructive. ETHUSD reclaimed the upper end of its trading range, only to encounter resistance around the 60-day EMA.
More generally, beta remains in play across the crypto complex, suggesting that tactical swing trading continues to offer better opportunities than outright directional conviction.
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