Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 82,534 / -5.70%
- ETHUSD: 1,822 / -12.47%
- US10Y: 4.21% / -13bps
- DXY: 104.18 / -0.12%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 3,123 / +3.72%
- NDX: 19,278 / -4.47%
- VIX: 22.28 / +27.46%
On the macro side:
Last week’s macro backdrop was marked by a notable dip in US consumer confidence, as the Conference Board’s index fell to 92.9 — its lowest level since January 2021 — alongside renewed tariff announcements from President Trump targeting imported automobiles and parts. Amid these developments, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed their worst quarter since 2022.
Yields declined across the curve, with the US10Y down 13 basis points, while the VIX surged over 27%, reflecting a clear rise in market uncertainty. Gold rallied more than 3%, reaching a new record high of USD 3,148 per ounce, suggesting continued demand for defensive assets (see Chart 1). Meanwhile, the DXY remained stable, showing little movement despite the elevated volatility.
Chart 1: Gold at All Time High – Weekly Chart since 2019.
Looking ahead:
This week’s calendar begins with Tuesday’s JOLTS job openings and factory orders, alongside the implementation of a new round of tariffs by the Trump administration as part of “Liberation Day”. On Wednesday, markets will focus on the ISM Services PMI for a timely read on business activity. Thursday brings the latest initial jobless claims, followed by Friday’s key labour market report, including non-farm payrolls, unemployment, and wage growth data.
On the FX side:
The US dollar remained broadly stable, with the DXY holding just above 104. EUR/USD traded in a narrow range between 1.075 and 1.085, as markets awaited clearer signals from both the Fed and the ECB.
USD/JPY was more active, offering tradable swings within a well-defined upward channel, with resistance forming around 150 and 151 (see Chart 2). A sustained break above 150 could be seen as a bullish signal, potentially driven by renewed interest in the carry trade. Overall, FX markets remained relatively contained, with volatility still concentrated in equities and crypto.
Chart 2: USD/JPY – 4H Chart with Rising Channel and Key Resistance Levels.
On the crypto side:
Crypto markets came under pressure last week, with bitcoin falling over 5% and Ethereum shedding more than 12%. Notably, bitcoin dominance increased to 61.4%, underscoring a rotation toward BTC as the relatively more resilient asset during market stress.
Ethereum underperformed sharply, with the ETH/BTC spread falling to its lowest level in nearly five years (see Chart 3). This relative weakness was mirrored in investment flows, as Bitcoin ETFs saw modest inflows while Ethereum products registered outflows.
Looking ahead, the growing divergence between BTC and the rest of the market suggests continued defensive positioning within crypto. As long as macro uncertainty and elevated volatility persist, BTC is likely to retain its relative strength. However, if risk appetite returns, some mean reversion in ETH/BTC and broader altcoin performance could follow. For now, market structure favours caution, with Bitcoin dominance likely to remain elevated in the short term.
Chart 3: Weekly Chart – ETH/BTC down -75% since Dec. 2021.
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