Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 112,819 / +2.13%
- ETHUSD: 4,356 / -0.89%
- US10Y: 4.05% / -21 bps
- DXY: 97.34 / -0.51%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 3,641 / +4.5% (!)
- SPX: 6,495 / +0.54%
- NDX: 23,762 / +1.48%
- VIX: 15.10 / -6.27%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 09 September 2025: US NFP annual revision
- Wednesday, 10 September 2025: US PPI
- Thursday, 11 September 2025: ECB Interest rate decision, US CPI, Fed’s Balance Sheet
- Friday, 12 September 2025: DE CPI
On the macro side:
NFP rose by just +22,000 in August, while June’s figures were revised into negative territory for the first time since 2020. In contrast, the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.3%, still historically low.
This divergence is exactly what Powell highlighted at Jackson Hole: immigration policy has lifted labor supply, but demand is cooling as businesses scale back.
The Fed’s focus has clearly shifted. Inflation is no longer the concern – the labor market is. That makes rate cuts inevitable.
Fed funds futures now price a 68% probability of the 350–375bp target by December 2025, up sharply from 36% last week. The September 17th meeting still leans toward a 25bp move, but the probability of a 50bp cut has risen to 10%. While not the base case, this “right-tail risk” is gathering more attention.
The USD remains under pressure, with near-term flows likely to be influenced further by this week’s PPI release. Entering the rate-cutting cycle, we would expect high-beta assets to outperform. While headlines will continue to fixate on inflation and jobs, the broader direction is clear: global central banks are converging toward easier policy. This backdrop is inherently bullish, though short-term volatility should be expected.
On the crypto side:
Week-over-week, BTCUSD is outperforming the broader crypto market but still trails Gold – a recurring theme that underscores its hybrid identity as both “digital gold” and a tech asset. In the current macro backdrop, this dual nature makes BTCUSD particularly attractive.
Technically, BTCUSD has reclaimed the 50-day EMA.
On the upside, USD 120,000 stands as the key resistance, while on the downside the 50-day EMA should act as a magnet, with USD 110,000 providing support.
RSI remains neutral, and implied volatility points to consolidation.
Notably, we see strong positioning in naked call selling, which could provide a gamma squeeze above USD120,000 if momentum builds.
In ETHUSD, momentum has cooled somewhat, but on-chain activity remains strong and the EMA trend is firming. We continue to expect solid bids around USD 4,200 and below.
SOLUSD has finally reached the USD120,000 level we were targeting, opening the door for further upside.
While this zone carries liquidity, the broader constructive outlook suggests SOLUSD could continue to outperform.
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