Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 86,605 / +4.21%
- ETHUSD: 2,062 / +8.13%
- US10Y: 4.33% / +3 bps
- DXY: 104.3 / +0.77%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 3,017 / +0%
- SPX: 5,767 / +1.62%
- NDX: 20,180 / +1.86%
- DVOL: 47.6 / -10.63%
- VIX: 17.58 / -15.72%
Looking ahead – Economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 25 March 2025: Case-Shiller House Price Index, CB Consumer Confidence, German passing law for fiscal budget for defence and infra
- Wednesday, 26 March 2025: US Durable Goods Order
- Thursday, 27 March 2025: US GDP (2nd revision), US Jobs
- Friday, 28 March 2025: US PCE
On the macro side:
Political, geopolitical, monetary, and fiscal uncertainty persist, yet risk markets appear to have bottomed and are now on a V-shaped recovery path.
Fear indices (VIX, VVIX, COR3M, MOVE) continue to decline, with bullish steepening in their term structures. Meanwhile, gold and Treasuries remain flat (bullish too).
Last week, the Fed signalled for the first time its intention to scale back quantitative tightening. While this is not quantitative easing (which seems unlikely in the near future), it does mean that additional liquidity is entering the market.
The Fed’s balance sheet currently stands at USD 6.76tn – back to May 2020 levels – effectively reversing the entire 2021 expansion with little impact (well done JPow). It will be interesting to observe how this trend develops in the coming weeks, particularly its effect on overnight markets.
Overall, the year-end target rate implied by Fed Fund Futures remains stable at 375–400 bps, with one rate cut expected in June and another in September.
The real impact of tariffs will become clearer soon, but with a relatively quiet news week ahead, the momentum is likely to continue.
On the FX side:
DXY bottomed on 18 March and is since then recovering with EURUSD again retesting the trend line at 1.0778, potentially closing the gap until 1.0619. Similarly, USDCHF finds resistance at 0.885.
I see the correlation between DXY and risk assets easing.
On the crypto side:
Crypto followed the broader risk momentum, displaying a classic beta response to traditional markets.
BTC and ETH broke above USD 85,000 and USD 2,000, respectively, but on low volume, making the price action relatively weak.
Futures open interest remains subdued, reflecting a lack of demand for leverage. The same applies to options, where 30-day BTC implied volatility is trading at 46v—a 25v discount to the last 30-day realized volatility—implying a ±5.5% move over the next month. This sets key support around USD 82,000 and resistance near USD 91,500, with demand for downside protection still elevated. At these levels, I see value in accumulators.
In the altcoin space, we’re noting solid performance in $CRV, $UNI, $SOL, and $LINK—where we continue to see value as high-beta plays.
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