Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 114,447 / -3.83%
- ETHUSD: 3,656 / -4.39%
- US10Y: 4.20% / -20 bps (!)
- DXY: 98.85 / +0.2%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 3,370 / +1.6%
- SPX: 6,329/ -0.95%
- NDX: 23,188 / -0.72%
- VIX: 17.53 / +16.56%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 05 August 2025: BoJ Meeting minutes, US Trade Deficit, US PMI, Earnings $AMD and $GLXY, Cliff Unlocks $ENA (USD 105 million 2.7% MC)
- Thursday, 06 August 2025: CNY Trade Data, BoE Interest Rate Decision, US Jobs, US trade tariffs go into effect
- Friday, 08 August 2025: Trump’s deadline for Russia ceasefire
On the macro side:
Busy week across macro: FOMC held as expected, but Waller/Bowman dissents flagged labor concerns. PCE came in hot at +2.6% YoY, and GDP surprised to the upside at +3.0% – both keeping July cuts off the table.
The real shift came Friday: NFP printed just +73,000, with a massive – 258,000 in revisions. That breaks the “resilient labor market” narrative. Bonds ripped, USD sold, and September cut odds jumped from 65% to 80%. The Fed now has political cover to move.
Meanwhile, global tariffs quietly took effect. Markets shrugged for now, but the combo of softening labor plus sticky inflation is a risk-off setup. Positioning implications: Fed cuts = bullish BTC/gold; slowing growth = headwind for alts and broader risk. Quieter week ahead – watch ISM Services, Trade Balance, and jobless claims.
On the crypto side:
BTC sold off after NFP in line with broader risk, but held up better than ETH and SOL. Gold rallied, BTC did not– highlighting its hybrid identity as both risk-asset and digital gold. Technically, BTC’s uptrend remains intact.
The 3 August retest of the 50-day SMA looks healthy – excessive longs got flushed, clearing the way for a potential leg higher. Options show mixed signals: short-dated options show demand for downside (hedging + spec positioning), but the vol curve remains expensive, with realized unable to catch up. December remains the richest point on the curve, with notable open interest buildup.
ETHUSD’s dip below USD 3,500 was short-lived, and price action looks constructive. USD 3,500 now acts as near-term support, with the USD 4,000 psychological level as resistance. ETH is beginning to outperform SOL, with the spread shifting in ETH’s favor.
We maintain a cautiously optimistic stance. With a quieter macro backdrop this week, we are watching for a pickup in ETF inflows and continued vol compression as confirmation of a constructive bullish setup.
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