Market Deep Dive: BTC Range-bound, YGG Token Rollercoaster, and Global Economic Data


During the week, BTC mainly traded in the range of 28,800 and 30,000, slightly dipping 200 points below the lower bound at the beginning of the week and surpassing the 30k range mid-week, before mean-reverting again to the 29,5k range.

Last Friday, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for July came in at 187k, below the anticipated 200k, but the unemployment rate was reported at 3.5%, which was better than the expected 3.6% and lower than the previous month’s 3.6%.

Over the weekend and on Monday the Yield Guild Games (YGG) token experienced a huge pump peaking at $1 on Monday on several exchanges before crashing and settling in 0.30-0.40 range during the week. The spike was further fuelled by the announcement of a YGG/USDT trading pair on Binance with a strong negative funding rate on Sunday and Monday. Some investors saw the strong negative funding ratio as a bullish signal, nevertheless the crash followed as venture capital backers transferred tokens to exchanges, possibly aiming to offload them during the surge.

The 30-day at-the-money implied volatility for BTC has increased more than 2% to 35% while the ATM volatility of ETH has declined further 3% to 29%. Such negative spreads between BTC and ETH options, hints that ETH’s price might be more stable for the coming weeks unless something big/unexpected happens in the Ethereum ecosystem.

On Tuesday, China’s July export and import figures fell 14.5% and 12.4% YoY, respectively, both exceeding analysts’ expected drops of -12.5% and -5%. The numbers surpassed also previous month’s figures of -12.4% and -6.8%, signalling a weaker-than-expected economic performance. On Wednesday, China’s July PPI decreased 4.4% YoY against forecasts of -4.1% while China’s CPI was 0.3% lower YoY slightly higher than forecasts of -0.4%.

On Thursday US July CPI data came in better than expected with inflation increasing 3.2% annually higher than June’s 3.0% but below the expected 3.3%, while the month-to-month rise of 0.2% from June to July met expectations. The US stocks reacted positive and rose while the crypto market did not show big adjustments.

Looking ahead, this afternoon, US PPI data will be released, with analysts anticipating a 0.7% increase, which is higher than last month’s rise of 0.1%.

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