Week-over-week performance:
BTCUSD: 115,704 / +2.56%
ETHUSD: 4,519 / +3.74%
US10Y: 4.04% / -1 bps
DXY: 97.21 / -0.13%
GOLD (USD/OZ): 3,684 / +1.18%
SPX: 6,615 / +1.85%
NDX: 24,293 / +2.23%
VIX: 15.68 / +3.84%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 16 September 2025: US Retail Sales
- Wednesday, 17 September 2025: EU CPI, US Building Permits, BoC Interest Rate Decision, FOMC
- Thursday, 18 September 2025: BoE Interest Rate Decision, US Jobless Claims
- Friday, 20 September 2025: BoJ Interest Rate Decision
On the macro side:
This week brings interest rate decisions from Canada, the US, the UK, and Japan.
The clear focal point is the FOMC: Fed Funds Futures are pricing a 96% probability of a 25 bp cut and just 4% for a 50 bp cut.
While a single cut is almost fully priced, a surprise double cut would likely trigger an immediate risk-on reaction.
With optionality this compressed, the question is: is that bet worth taking?
Looking further ahead, markets imply an end-of-year Fed target rate of 3.50–3.75%, 75 bps below current levels.
As noted previously, with the rate-cutting cycle set to begin this week, there’s little left for macro analysts to debate: smaller caps and high-beta assets are positioned to outperform.
Of course, forward guidance will remain key.
On the crypto side:
Flows were dominated by macro headlines and DATs (Digital Asset Treasury) .
BTCUSD rebounded off the 50-day EMA, now eyeing USD 118,000, with strong support at USD 113–114,000.
30-day realized vol sits at 30% (bottom 10% of the past year), pointing to further consolidation.
Options flow skewed to the upside, with 30-day implied vol at 32%.
While not “cheap”, outright call buying here looks like a reasonable trade.
ETHUSD has slightly outperformed, spearheading altcoin season as TOTAL3 hit a new ATH at USD 1.16 trillion amid a wave of high-beta strength.
ETH remains well bid but is losing momentum – a strong macro catalyst could be enough to drive a breakout.
SOLUSD is the standout, up 10% WoW and trading at USD 236 after failing to break USD 250 resistance, lagging the DATs news.
The 50-day EMA sits down at USD 201, leaving room for retracement, but relative value vs. ETH and BTC still argues for upside toward the USD 275 area.
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