Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 114,954 / -3.35%
- ETHUSD: 4,232 / -1.37%
- US10Y: 4.34% / +5 bps
- DXY: 98.17 / -0.37%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 3,337 / -0.33%
- SPX: 6,449 / +1.19%
- NDX: 23,713 / +0.78%
- VIX: 14.98 / -7.28%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 19 August 2025: US Building Permits, US Housing Starts, US GDP Q3
- Wednesday, 20 August 2025: EU CPI, FOMC Minutes, Jackson Hole
- Thursday, 21 August 2025: US Jobless claims, US Existing Home sales
- Friday, 22 August 2025: Powell’s Speech at Jackson Hole, $AVAX unlock (0.33% MC/ USD 38 million)
On the macro side:
Last week, US macro data delivered mixed signals, leaving the near-term outlook uncertain.
Fed Funds futures now imply a 47% probability of a 375–400 bps target rate by year-end, while the 17 September 2025 contract prices an 83% chance of 400–425 bps, down from 94% the week prior.
This week brings the FOMC minutes, which we do not expect to significantly move markets. Instead, attention will be on Jackson Hole, with Powell’s Friday speech likely to be the key event.
Equities remain resilient, even after adjusting for a weaker USD. Until there is more clarity on geopolitical and macro developments, we expect recent trends to persist.
On the crypto side:
Crypto is finally moving again.
After printing a new ATH, BTCUSD retraced back into the July–August channel, once again confirming that selling strength at ATHs has been a solid short-term trade. BTC dominance has now slipped below 60% and, for the first time since 2023, the weekly candle closed decisively under the EMA50 – a constructive signal for Altcoins. That said, we do not expect a repeat of 2021 where everything rallied indiscriminately, but rather a selective outperformance of certain names.
Chart 1: BTC Dominance
Demand for BTC remains strong, with support expected around USD 112,000 and resistance near USD 120,000. We are also seeing healthy interest in short-term Iron Condor structures, suggesting active positioning around this range.
Below USD 110,000 we expect a blood bath.
Turning to Ethereum, the price action looks even more bullish. We note increased selling pressure near the ATH alongside rising demand for unstaking. Still, ETF flows into ETH are picking up, and the expected launch of staking-enabled ETH ETFs could add further momentum. At ~USD 510 billion market cap, ETH’s business case and value proposition remain compelling– crypto is not just Bitcoin.
Technically, first support sits at USD 4,100, with USD 4,000 as a key psychological level. On the upside, we anticipate heavy resistance and sharp moves between USD 4,600 and USD 5,000. Vol markets are focused on ETH too, with implied vol trading at 2x BTC levels and 20v above realized. Positioning skews towards puts over calls into the 26 September 2025 expiry, reflecting both hedging flows and speculative downside plays. We also see rotation into ETH high-betas such as $LINK and $LDO, both still well below recent highs. Some of the ETH put demand likely acts as a proxy hedge for broader altcoin portfolios – a pattern reminiscent of 2021but absent for quite some time.
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