Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 77,633 / -1.1%
- ETHUSD: 2,496 / +1.1%
- US10Y: 5.01% / +20 bps
- DXY: 99.62 / +0.78%
- Gold (USD/oz): 4,291 / -2.5%
- SPX: 7,619 / -1.3%
- NDX: 29,127 / -1.4%
- VIX: 17.11 / +12%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Wednesday, 16 September 2026: U.S. retail sales and FOMC decision
- Thursday, 17 September 2026: EU CPI, BoE interest rate decision, and U.S. jobless claims
- Friday, 18 September 2026: BoJ interest rate decision
On the macro side:
Markets were relatively mixed last week, with the most notable move coming from global bond markets as sovereign yields pushed higher.
The sell-off was driven by increasingly hawkish rhetoric from both the ECB and the BoE, as policymakers highlighted the risk of persistent inflation and signaled that policy rates may need to remain restrictive for longer.
Attention now shifts to this week’s FOMC meeting. Markets are currently pricing in a high probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike, which would bring the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. Some economists have also started to pencil in an additional hike later this year.
The contrarian view remains that the Fed could opt to hold, arguing that recent inflation pressures have been largely energy-driven and that policymakers may prefer to assess the impact of existing tightening before taking further action.
The political backdrop and growing discussion around future policy easing add another layer of uncertainty.
That said, we do not believe the high implied probability necessarily means investors are fully positioned for the outcome.
As a result, we expect the FOMC announcement and subsequent press conference to be a major volatility catalyst, with the potential for sharp and erratic moves across asset classes.
On the crypto side:
Crypto markets continue to demonstrate resilience despite renewed concerns about higher rates and the prospect of restrictive monetary policy remaining in place for longer.
The asset class has generally absorbed macro headwinds well, suggesting that investor appetite for alternative stores of value remains intact.
The CLARITY Act cloture vote is scheduled for today, Tuesday, 15 September 2026, at 2:15 p.m. ET. A successful outcome could provide a positive catalyst for crypto-related equities and DeFi-linked tokens.
Prediction markets currently imply a relatively low probability of passage, at around 34%.
While recent amendments were designed to attract broader bipartisan support, securing the necessary votes from Democratic lawmakers remains far from certain, leaving the vote as an important risk for the sector.
BTCUSD continues to find support around the USD 76,300 area, while liquidity remains concentrated near USD 80,000. We expect this range to remain broadly intact heading into the FOMC decision, absent any major macro surprise.
ETHUSD is also holding up well, trading around the USD 2,500 level in a relatively tight range as markets await clearer directional catalysts.
Options markets are pricing meaningful event risk around the FOMC. The 17 September 2026 expiry continues to trade at a premium, implying an expected move of approximately ±2.75% for BTC and ±3.5% for ETH.
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