Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 78,492 /-0.82%
- ETHUSD: 2,468 / -0.52%
- US10Y: 4.8% / +2 BPS
- DXY: 98.85 / -0.63%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,403 / -0.83%
- SPX: 7,718 / 0.41%
- NDX: 29,544 / +0.29%
- VIX: 15.29 / +2.41%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Thursday, 08 September 2026: ECB Interest Rate Decision, Earnings $ORCL
- Friday, 09 September 2026: US CPI
On the macro side:
Markets remain largely unchanged week-on-week despite another strong U.S. labor market print. The initial reaction to payrolls was a modest sell-off across risk assets, reinforcing the view that investors continue to look for signs of a meaningful slowdown that could justify a more accommodative Fed path.
So far, however, the data continue to suggest a resilient economy. While inflation remains above target and price stability is still the key concern for policymakers, there has been no indication that the Fed is prepared to revisit its 2% inflation objective. That said, recent releases have reminded us that headline figures can be revised meaningfully lower after the fact, as seen in other labor market indicators such as JOLTS.
Against this backdrop, the long end of the U.S. yield curve continues to flatten, with the 30Y-10Y spread narrowing to 46bps as the 10-year yield pushes towards 4.8%.
Elsewhere, AI-related equities continue to perform well in an orderly fashion rather than through speculative excess. We view this as constructive for broader risk sentiment and, by extension, supportive for digital assets. The medium-term trend remains intact, with attention now shifting to Friday’s CPI release.
On the crypto side:
Crypto continues to hold up well despite the lack of a fresh macro catalyst. Positioning has become less stretched, with both open interest and funding rates moderating across major venues.
BTC remains range-bound and continues to exhibit a classic „Bart Simpson“ price structure. The key level on the upside remains the USD 80,000 area, while the current range provides support ahead of a stronger support zone around USD 76,000.
Beyond Bitcoin, we have seen a notable improvement in market breadth. Alongside privacy-related names, meme tokens have once again captured investor attention, supported by growing activity across several trading and launch platforms. We view the return of retail engagement as broadly positive for the ecosystem, as it tends to attract liquidity and attention back into the sector.
DeFi has been one of the primary beneficiaries of this rotation, both from a network activity perspective and in terms of price performance. UNI remains one of the key assets we continue to monitor closely.
ETH and SOL have yet to fully participate in the latest move but continue to trade constructively. We believe SOL still has room to catch up should risk appetite remain supportive, while ETH’s historical beta relationship to Bitcoin suggests potential for relative outperformance if BTC can successfully break higher.
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