Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 62,947 / -4.63%
- ETHUSD: 1,691 / -3.97%
- US10Y: 4.48% / +1 BPS
- DXY: 101.0 / +1.26%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,117 / -4.85%
- SPX: 7,472 / -1.08%
- NDX: 30,347 / -0.64%
- VIX: 19.68 / +21.4%
Looking ahead – weekly economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 30 June 2026: US JOLTs
- Wednesday, 1 July 2026: EU CPI, US ADP Nonfarm Employments change, US Crude Oil Inventories
- Thursday, 2 July 2026: US NFP, US Unemployment rate, US Average Hourly Earnings
- Friday, 3 July 2026: US Holiday
On the macro side:
Despite strong Micron earnings, equities are slightly softer week-over-week, with AI-related names showing signs of cooling off. We saw a few spikes in the VIX here and there, but zooming out, volatility remains well below its yearly average, and overall conditions still look constructive.
What is more interesting is that despite a modest risk-off tone during the week, the USD failed to move materially higher. To me, that suggests long-USD positioning has largely run its course, momentum is fading, and the market looks somewhat exhausted at these levels.
That should be a net positive for risk assets. However, this week’s NFP release is likely to act as a positioning reset and could drive short-term volatility.
On the crypto side:
BTC is lower week-over-week and is currently trading just above a key support zone, with relatively little market structure underneath. The market remains fragile, volumes are light, and ETFs continue to be the largest source of selling pressure. But that is not necessarily a negative development.
Saylor has finally unveiled a “Digital Credit Capital Framework” and, in short, appears to acknowledge that Strategy may eventually need to monetize part of its Bitcoin holdings to improve its cash position.
We continue to believe that the best outcome for Strategy would be to take a step back from being the central narrative in the Bitcoin market. Existing cash resources would, in our view, be better deployed, strengthening the balance sheet and common equity rather than supporting additional preferred stock issuance. Buying STRC at these levels effectively risks becoming exit liquidity for existing holders without materially improving the underlying business.
Nevertheless, MSTR rallied 12.6% on Monday, driven in large part by short covering. STRC is still trading around USD 84 and, until the market sees the first meaningful Bitcoin sale, our outlook on Strategy remains unchanged. The market’s ability and willingness to absorb those potential BTC sales remains an open question.
BTC implied volatility edged higher, with 30-day volatility now around 40 vols, while the overall surface remains largely unchanged. Downside protection continues to attract demand. Perpetual funding rates have recovered but remain well below risk-free rates.
Outside of Bitcoin, beta continues to drive performance. ETH is also trading near an important support level and remains highly sensitive to broader market direction. Overall, we believe markets need some time to digest recent price action and are likely to remain range-bound in the near term.
That said, positioning remains relatively light, meaning any significant catalyst could trigger outsized and somewhat erratic moves in either direction.
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