Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 62,600 / -0.94%
- ETHUSD: 1,783 / +0.62%
- US10Y: 4.63% / +13 BPS
- DXY: 101.23 / +0.3%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,023 / -2.5%
- SPX: 7,515 / -0.3%
- NDX: 29,264 / -1.46%
- VIX: 17.15 / +10%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 14 July 2026: US CPI; earnings from $JPM, $BAC, $GS, $WFC, $C, $IBKR, $ERIC, and $AEHR
- Wednesday, 15 July 2026: US PPI, BoC interest rate decision, US crude oil inventories; earnings from $ASML and $MS
- Thursday, 16 July 2026: US retail sales, US core sales, US jobless claims; earnings from $TSM and $STX
- Friday, 17 July 2026: EU CPI
On the macro side:
Week over week, equities are softer, with the Nasdaq once again underperforming the S&P 500.
The headline Nasdaq performance still understates the weakness in core technology: the index benefits from several large constituents that are not pure tech plays, while more concentrated technology benchmarks such as the SOX are down around 10% over the same period.
This comes despite supportive sector headlines, including the US listing of SK Hynix and strong headline earnings from Samsung.
Asian equities have been under pressure more broadly, with the KOSPI down roughly 15% in USD terms over the same window.
Q2 earnings season starts this week with the major US banks, followed by several blue-chip names across technology and financials.
With equity valuations already elevated—particularly across AI infrastructure—simple earnings beats may no longer be enough to keep the rally intact. Guidance, capex intentions, and the quality of earnings will likely matter more than the headline numbers.
The market is increasingly focused on the divergence in free cash flow across the AI ecosystem. Hyperscaler free cash flow is expected to come under pressure—and could eventually turn negative—as AI-related capex continues to rise. At the same time, free cash flow among the companies supplying that infrastructure is expected to increase meaningfully. That capital will ultimately need to be redeployed somewhere.
Looking at pricing trends across key AI components, there is little evidence that the underlying cycle has broken.
Demand remains solid, suggesting that the recent weakness in AI-related equities is more about positioning, expectations and valuations than a clear deterioration in fundamentals.
This week, the first focus is US CPI, although we are not expecting an outsized market reaction unless the release materially deviates from consensus.
Attention will then shift to the major US banks for signals on credit conditions, consumer health, trading activity and capital-market demand.
Later in the week, US retail sales and TSMC will be the key events, with TSMC providing the most important read-through for AI demand, advanced-node utilization, packaging capacity, and the broader semiconductor cycle.
On the crypto side:
BTCUSD is also softer week over week, although realized volatility remains compressed, currently sitting near the bottom 10% of its one-year historical range.
From a trend perspective, we believe the range-bound pattern remains intact, with price continuing to print lower highs and lower lows.
Futures open interest remains muted, while the volatility surface is similarly subdued. 30-day implied volatility is trading around 35% with a 5-volatility-point premium, with skew consistently tilted toward downside protection as TradFi-led flows continue to dominate volumes.
Saylor’s improved cash positioning has marginally reduced debt-financing costs, and the market appears to be increasingly recognizing this as the more sustainable approach.
Technically, the USD 63,000– USD 65,000 area remains the key resistance zone. Immediate support sits around USD 61,300, followed by the more important USD 58,000– USD 59,000 region.
ETHUSD marginally outperformed BTCUSD but was rejected at its 60-day EMA. Meanwhile, BTC dominance remains broadly stable at around 59%.
From a chart perspective, ETHUSD looks somewhat more constructive. The 60-day EMA remains the immediate resistance, while the USD 1,500– USD 1,600 area should provide support.
A clean break above the moving average would improve the technical setup and could help rebuild momentum.
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