Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 62,600 / -0.94%
- ETHUSD: 1,783 / +0.62%
- US10Y: 4.63% / +13 BPS
- DXY: 101.23 / +0.3%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,023 / -2.5%
- SPX: 7,515 / -0.3%
- NDX: 29,264 / -1.46%
- VIX: 17.15 / +10%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Wednesday, 29 July 2026: FOMC, Earnings: $META, $MSFT
- Thursday, 30 July 2026: BoE Interest Rate Decision, US PCE, US Jobless Claims, Earnings: $COIN, $HOOD, $AAPL, $AMZN
- Friday, 31 July 2026: BoJ Interest Rate Decision, EU CPI
On the macro side:
Equity indices are lower week-over-week, with a notable divergence between traditional moat-driven businesses and AI-related names. Semiconductors have led the pullback, driven primarily by weakness in the memory segment. NVIDIA, one of the key beneficiaries of the AI trade, notably ceded its position as the world’s largest publicly traded company by market capitalization to Apple.
The USD remains firm, while volatility continues to trade at relatively subdued levels, with the VIX showing little sign of stress ahead of the FOMC meeting. While the base case remains for rates to be left unchanged, market expectations are far from unanimous, with pricing still implying roughly a 60-40 split between the two main outcomes. This degree of uncertainty is important, as it suggests investors remain meaningfully positioned on both sides of the debate.
We believe the resolution of the FOMC event risk could act as a near-term catalyst for markets. Regardless of the outcome itself, a significant number of investors will likely find themselves either over-hedged or under-positioned, forcing a round of portfolio adjustments. Against this backdrop, this week’s earnings calendar takes on even greater importance with both $META (CapEx, AI, …) and $COIN.
On the crypto side:
Crypto markets are also softer week-over-week, with major assets once again failing to break through key resistance levels and subsequently drifting back into their recent trading ranges.
Bitcoin continues to hold above an important support zone, although price action remains largely range-bound as investors await the next macro catalyst. Ethereum, meanwhile, continues to exhibit more constructive price action, with relative performance against Bitcoin remaining firm.
Perhaps the most notable development is crypto’s resilience relative to broader risk assets. Despite weakness across semiconductors and several of the market’s most crowded AI-related trades, digital assets have remained remarkably stable. The absence of the high-beta sell-off typically associated with periods of equity weakness suggests that crypto-specific flows are becoming increasingly important drivers of price action, while correlations with traditional risk assets continue to moderate.
Turning to Strategy, we view management’s continued focus on strengthening liquidity and expanding its funding flexibility as a positive development. While we remain skeptical of the growing ecosystem of BTC-linked preferred securities and structured products, the company’s ability to secure additional capital and reinforce its balance sheet reduces several concerns that had previously weighed on investor sentiment. From a Bitcoin perspective, the more important takeaway is that Strategy remains well-positioned to continue executing its long-term accumulation strategy.
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