Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 64,308 / +0.67%
- ETHUSD: 1,898 / +1.49%
- US10Y: 4.74% / +3 BPS
- DXY: 99.66 / -0.17%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,398 / +0.8%
- SPX: 7,745 / +0.02%
- NDX: 29,995 / +1.26%
- VIX: 15.18 / -1.74%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Wednesday, 19 August 2026: EU CPI, US Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Meeting Minutes
- Thursday, 20 August 2026: US Jobless Claims, Earnings: $WMT, $BABA
On the macro side:
SPX retraced after printing a fresh ATH and is now eyeing the upper end of some banks’ year-end targets at 8,000. NDX continues to catch up, with semis up 21% from the 29 July low as the AI and memory trade keeps leading the move higher.
Despite the weaker jobs data and in-line inflation expectations, the September FOMC meeting is still expected to leave the Fed policy rate unchanged at 350-375bps. Markets are not pricing any rate cuts over the next 12 months, while expectations for further rate hikes have increased.
The USD remains stable, with DXY still shy of 100, while EURUSD is trading around the middle of its one-year range. USDJPY continues to grind higher and is approaching pre-intervention levels. Meanwhile, the US 30Y yield has broken decisively above the previous 5.20% resistance and is now trading around 5.32%.
Nevertheless, the US-EU 30Y spread remains relatively tight at 1.55%, while US breakeven inflation remains stable, suggesting that higher long-end yields are not being driven by inflation expectations alone.
VIX remains subdued, with little reason for it not to be. This week’s calendar is relatively light, with FOMC minutes being the main event that could add some color to an otherwise well-understood and widely discussed narrative.
On the crypto side:
BTCUSD continues to trade comfortably above the USD 63,000 level, which is providing solid support to an otherwise weak market backdrop. $STRC is trading at USD 94.36, with Saylor continuing to actively promote the product across social media.
BTC 30-day realized volatility traded at its lowest level in the past year, briefly touching 21%, and is now sitting around 23%. Implied volatility remains at a premium across most maturities, while ongoing ETF flows continue to keep skew negative and basis compressed.
Funding rates are firming, and open interest is gradually building, but not to levels that would suggest an imminent directional move. Overall, the market remains range bound. That said, as consolidation continues and positioning stays relatively light, the next breakout could be more pronounced.
The picture is broadly similar across ETHUSD and the rest of the complex, with beta continuing to perform as expected.
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