Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 83,467 / -8.74%
- ETHUSD: 2,080 / -17.28%
- US10Y: 4.14% / -40 bps
- DXY: 106.48 / -0.21%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 2,891 / -1.79%
- SPX: 5,849 / -2.94%
- NDX: 20,425 / -2.20%
- DVOL: 58.31 / +24.35%
- VIX: 22.77 / +25.94%
Looking ahead – Economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 04 March 2025: Trump addresses Congress
- Wednesday, 05 March 2025: US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Fed Beige Book, Cliff Unlocks $ENA ($938M 66.19% MC)
- Thursday, 06 March 2025: ECB Interest rate decision
- Friday, 07 March 2025: US NFP, White House Crypto Summit
- Saturday, 08 March 2025: $SOL SIMD-0228 proposal
On the macro side:
It was a wild week.
Despite strong NVDA earnings, concerns over US growth, impending tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada—set to take effect today—and geopolitical tensions (such as the Ukraine-Russia conflict) dragged nearly every asset lower, with only a few names in the green.
Collectively, the “Trump trade” is officially over. Trump now needs some wins before his approval ratings start slipping. While his credibility is fading—at least in the eyes of the market—we believe he will do “whatever it takes” to avoid presiding over a prolonged stock market drawdown.
The VIX is trading higher, but this time it appears more “systematic” than a panicked “rush-to-hedge,” as the entire term structure has shifted upward. The longer the S&P 500 remains below the 6,000 mark, the greater the risk of further downside.
All eyes on NFP.
Chart 1: VIX term structure, March3 vs Feb25
On the FX side:
Overall, FX has been quiet, with the DXY remaining within its comfort zone, ranging between 106 and 108.6.
EURUSD repeatedly failed to break above 1.052, while USDCHF found solid support at 0.8933.
My view is that as Trump’s credibility wanes, the USD will weaken, marking the end of the USD carry trade—arguably the most crowded trade in the market. This should provide a tailwind for risk assets.
All eyes are on the ECB rates decision and US NFP.
Chart 2: EURUSD, EURCHF, USDCHF, DXY – 1d
On the crypto side:
If macro was wild, crypto markets were the old Wild West—on steroids.
What initially looked like a wide-ranging consolidation turned into a bloodbath, with BTCUSD now hovering above USD 82,000 in no man’s land, showing little buying interest and looking vulnerable to dropping towards USD 72,000 at any moment. Beyond BTC, the picture is even worse.
My key takeaway: Crypto remains the most liquid risk asset globally, which has effectively turned it into a free-leverage, digital-options playground—arguably not a good thing. However, strong lobbying efforts and political interests favour higher crypto prices, which should ultimately drive crypto to outperform traditional risk assets in the medium term. Eyes on the crypto summit—let’s see what the Strategic Crypto Reserve will look like in practice.
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