Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 110,239 / -4.1% (!)
- ETHUSD: 4,438 / +4.87% (!)
- US10Y: 4.30% / -4 bps
- DXY: 98.38 / +0.2%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 3,373 / +1.08%
- SPX: 6,439 / -0.16%
- NDX: 23,425 / -1.21%
- VIX: 14.80 / -1.20%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 26 August 2025: US Durable Goods, CB Consumer Confidence, US GDP Q3
- Wednesday, 27 August 2025: 50% US tariff to India take effect, $NVDA earnings
- Thursday, 28 August 2025: ECB Meeting minutes, Bitcoin Asia 2025 Conference, $JUP Unlocks (1.78% MC / USD 26 million)
- Friday, 29 August 2025: US-Iran Nuclear deal deadline, US CORE PCE Index
On the macro side:
Last week, Powell’s Jackson Hole speech acted as a catalyst for a short-lived rally in risk assets versus the USD. He signaled a willingness to begin a gradual rate-cutting cycle – though this view is far from unanimous among Fed governors.
Bond markets are now pricing a 44% probability of two rate cuts in 2025 and a 95% probability of at least one cut. Despite this, equities ended the week lower, the USD softened, and the VIX touched a new yearly low.
This week’s highlight is $NVDA earnings, which will be closely scrutinized given the stock’s 7.58% weight in the S&P 500. With volatility priced so low, the question is whether the market is underestimating the potential impact or simply betting that NVDA will deliver again. A common view across desks is that long VIX positions at current levels offer an attractive asymmetric hedge for risk portfolios this week.
On the crypto side:
As we flagged last week, an altcoin rotation– or “altseason”– appears to be taking shape. BTCUSD briefly broke below USD 110,000 support before bouncing, though the recovery lacked conviction. With implied and realized volatility both sitting in the mid-30s, we see less likelihood of a clean breakout and more of a swing-trading environment– favorable for high-beta strategies.
ETHUSD outperformed BTCUSD by roughly -1x, with its 7-day beta vs BTC surging to 3 (compared to a 90-day beta of 1.77). This highlights the ongoing decoupling in volatility and correlation. ETH printed a marginal new ATH but failed to sustain momentum– once again making selling into highs a good short-term trade. In this environment, we continue to favor short-term mean reversion trades on 3+ standard deviation moves.
Finally, crypto eyes are also on $NVDA earnings, given its broad market impact.
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