We are still in a market that punishes strength. Rallies are sold into, not embraced. Moves higher feel like opportunities to de-risk rather than re-engage. Liquidity remains shallow, headlines dictate direction, and conviction is scarce.
Bitcoin made a brief run toward the top of its recent range near USD 70,000 earlier this week, only to surrender much of the advance just as quickly. As we write, BTC sits back in familiar territory around the USD 68,000 mark, comfortably within the range, but still far from levels that would suggest a decisive shift in momentum.
Let us unpack what happened this week.
Macro: Tariffs, Tech & Policy Crosscurrents
The macro backdrop has grown more complex, with courts, trade policy, and tech repricing driving uncertainty.
A landmark 6–3 Supreme Court ruling curtailed presidential authority to impose unilateral tariffs, invalidating a significant portion of Trump’s prior tariff framework. In response, tariffs were quickly reinstated at 10% before being raised further to 15%, reinforcing the sense that trade policy remains fluid and reactive. Risk assets softened as markets repriced the implications for global growth and inflation.
At the same time, the AI narrative is beginning to show cracks. Nvidia’s post-earnings reversal weighed on the broader tech complex, while IBM fell 13% after Anthropic announced tools capable of modernizing legacy COBOL systems – highlighting the disruptive speed of AI and raising questions around incumbents’ long-term positioning. BTC continues to trade within this broader tech-linked risk framework.
On the policy side, Fed Governor Waller described the March FOMC decision as a “coin flip,” reinforcing that the Fed remains data-dependent and unwilling to signal a clear path. The result is a market navigating judicial intervention, tariff escalation, and AI-driven repricing, all against a backdrop of cautious liquidity and fragile risk sentiment.
Crypto: Between Reset and Recovery
Crypto has absorbed another wave of macro-driven volatility, but the nature of the sell-off suggests a healthier underlying structure than prior episodes.
BTC fell at the start of the week on tariff-driven headlines, briefly reaching lows around USD 62,500. Yet the move felt orderly rather than disorderly. Unlike last year’s sharp cascades, spot weakened gradually, particularly through Asia hours, rather than gapping aggressively lower. This distinction matters – it points to cleaner positioning, lower leverage excess, and less forced unwinding.
ETF flows reinforce that interpretation. Last week’s roughly USD 316 million in net outflows from spot BTC ETFs were notable but far from capitulatory. More importantly, flows turned positive earlier this week, with a ~USD 507 million inflow day helping stabilize price off the lows. In thinner liquidity conditions, ETF flows remain both a driver and confirmation of short-term sentiment shifts.
That said, perspective is important. Despite the recent bounce, February is still shaping up to be BTC’s weakest month since Q2 – a reminder that this remains a corrective phase rather than a confirmed recovery.
Interestingly, ETH has quietly outperformed (+4.5% on the week). Its move higher has been more orderly, with ETH/BTC reclaiming and pushing through the 0.03 level – a monthly high that now has the potential to act as near-term support. While broader conviction remains cautious, relative strength in ETH suggests selective rotation rather than wholesale de-risking.
Looking ahead, market will not be short of potential triggers. The proposed Clarity Act continues to advance, while U.S.–Iran negotiations later this week introduce an additional macro variable.
The broader takeaway: positioning has reset, leverage has been flushed, and while conviction remains cautious, the absence of disorderly selling suggests a more resilient foundation than earlier in the year.
Looking Ahead: Base or Breakdown?
Whilst the BTC is on track to close another red month, the character of recent price action has evolved. Liquidations are smaller, volatility spikes are less persistent, and ETF flows – while mixed – no longer show signs of sustained forced exit.
What is missing is follow-through. Stabilization alone does not shift market structure. A sustained move back toward the mid-USD 70,000 region would signal genuine re-engagement of risk and restore confidence that the recent drawdown was corrective rather than transitional.
Until that occurs, markets are likely to remain reactive rather than directional. Positioning is lighter, leverage has reset, and downside momentum has slowed but conviction to re-risk remains selective.
The key shift is this: the market is no longer in disorder, but it has yet to re-establish strength.
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