Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 110,464 / -0.2%
- ETHUSD: 4,395 / -0.97%
- US10Y: 4.26% / -4 bps
- DXY: 97.84 / -0.55%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 3,484 / +3.3%
- SPX: 6,460 / +0.33%
- NDX: 23,415 / -0.04%
- VIX: 16.11 / +8.85%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 02 September: US ISM Manufacturing, US President Trump Speaks
- Wednesday, 03 September: US JOTLs
- Thursday, 04 September: CH CPI, US ADP Nonfarm employment change, US Jobless claims, US Trade Balance, US PMI
- Friday 05 September: CH Foreign Reserves, US Average hourly earnings, US NFP
On the macro side:
Despite strong NVDA earnings, the stock is trading softer as Jensen Huang appears to be tempering expectations.
US major equity indices are also under pressure and have underperformed versus the USD.
The cash VIX staged a decent rebound, and we continue to view it as an attractive hedge
This week features numerous Fed speakers, but the key event will be Friday’s NFP release,- especially after Waller’s comments last week left the door open for a potential 50 bps cut.
On other fronts, I’m also keeping an eye on Swiss foreign reserves to gauge the extent to which the SNB may be working to weaken the CHF and/or support the USD and the overall trade balance.
On the crypto side:
Week-over-week, crypto traded softer, with BTCUSD finding support around USD108k as we step into September.
August stood out as an exceptional month for the space, both in terms of trading activity and project/news flow, – something we haven’t seen in a long time, with many saving their “big new thing” for September and October.
On the charts, we expect BTCUSD to attempt a move back toward the 50-day EMA (~USD113,000), pending Friday’s NFP release.
7d realized vol is sitting in the bottom 30th percentile of the past year, suggesting more room for compression.
With implied vol roughly in line with realized, we don’t find options cheap. The market is skewed toward puts over calls into year-end, which we think creates room to build positions ahead of “Uptober,” with USD 105,000–106,000 as key support. That said, we continue to see potential for BTC to underperform broader crypto, as BTC dominance drifts into the low 50s.
Flows into ETH ETFs remain robust, with strong spot volumes. Realized and implied volatilities continue to trade at roughly 2x BTC’s levels, with upside optionality well bid. We expect USD 4,000 to provide firm support, with positive macro data acting as a catalyst for a break above recent highs.
In SOLUSD to revisit the USD 240 range, a decisive break above USD 220 is needed in the short term. Otherwise, we expect SOL to test the 50-day EMA (~USD 185) before finding support. Within the SOL memecoin ecosystem, activity is picking up, but not yet enough to drive meaningful incremental demand for SOL.
In Altland OKX’s token burn and CRO’s bold partnership plans with the Trump family are notable. We expect this type of headline-driven activity to become increasingly common into year-end.
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