TA Tuesday: Do you sense positivity in the market or is it too early?

Are we gonna make it?

At the time of writing, $BTC is trading at $44,151 (+13.44% in 7 days), $ETH is trading at $3,149 (+12.37% in 7 days), and the spread is trading at 0.07132 (-1.07% in 7 days).

The main indices reflect the bullish sentiment that began in the second half of last week: Altcoin index (+16.23% in 7 days), Midcap index (+14.41% in 7 days), and Shitcoin index (+19.60% in 7 days).

Bitcoin saw another price hike on Monday after going up more than +11% on Friday. The last time bitcoin gained more than 11% within a 24-hour period was in June of last year.

Despite the upward trend, BTC’s 3-month realised volatility (RV) and BTC’s 3-month implied volatility (IV) continue to be low, and are trading without a variance premium at 64.95%. All BTC 25D skews are trading around par (average risk reversal is 3%), and BTC funding rates are slightly negative across all exchanges.

Despite the nice rally, I think it is still early. The market is still long gamma as the pressure on selling the perpetual continues to be high, and the volatility is not increasing. I confirm what was said last week  as I expect an increase in volatility, and a break of the resistance level at 45k could result in a gamma squeeze, which would bring more short positions to liquidate, and the spot price to increase further. According to Coinglass, on Friday we saw the largest net short liquidation since the start of the year, and the move was clear.

In other news:

– DeFi’s Aave has launched the Lens Web3 social media platform, which Stani Kulechov describes as an “open and composable social media protocol [Web 3] to allow anyone to create a non-custodial social media profile and create new social media applications.

KPMG in Canada said it has added bitcoin and Ethereum to its corporate treasury as part of a commitment to emerging technologies and asset classes, becoming one of the most high-profile mainstream companies to invest in cryptocurrencies

– Valkyrie’s Bitcoin Mining ETF will launch today on Nasdaq under the name $WGMI (an acronym for “We’re Gonna Make It”). The investment vehicle will not offer direct exposure to bitcoin, but at least 80% of its net assets will be through securities of companies that “derive at least 50% of their revenue or profits from the mining of BTC or from the supply of the hardware or software related to the mining”. Furthermore, the filing added that Valkyrie will invest up to 20% of the ETFs net worth in companies that hold a significant portion of their net worth in bitcoin.

– Tesla still owns $2 billion in bitcoin.

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