Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 66,274/ -6.20%
- ETHUSD: 3,345 / -8.43%
- US10Y: 4.31% / +6bps
- DXY: 105.06 / +0.90%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 2,255 / 3.92% (!)
- NDX: 18,293 / +0.08%
- VIX: 13.66 / +4.12%
On the macro side:
Last week’s US PCE figures came in line with expectations at 2.5% YoY, resulting in a slight uptick for gold and the US dollar as rate cut anticipations eased.
Despite this, risk assets continued to perform well.
Looking ahead:
- Tuesday, 2 April: DE CPI, US JOLTs
- Wednesday, 3 April: EU CPI, ADP Payrolls
- Friday, 5 April: US NFP
On the FX side:
Continued inflationary pressures bolstered the USD throughout the week, with the DXY surpassing 105, while EURUSD retreated to 1.07 and USDCHF flirted with 0.907.
In the short term, the EURCHF was trading between 0.9674 and 0.9824, and the USDCHF between 0.9012 and 0.9114.
Looking ahead to the EU inflation figures, my preference remains to sell CHF.
On the crypto side:
Sentiment in the crypto market remains mixed, with FOMO subsiding.
Although futures funding was high over the Easter break, activity and enthusiasm for meme coins has cooled.
The market is transitioning into a period of lower volatility, characterised by selling at previous highs and buying at previous lows.
I am prepared to enter the market on a small dip.
BTCUSD is trading in the range of USD 64,000 – USD 70,000 range with USD 60,000 as a last resort.
In altcoins, sentiment is tilted to the downside, with ETHBTC approaching 0.05 and SOLETH reaching ATH levels.
In derivatives, the volatility surface remains steep, and I continue to favour selling risk reversals as the halving event approaches, which I believe could trigger a “sell the news” reaction.
Chart 1: BTCUSD 1h
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