Market Deep Dive: BTC set to record best quarterly performance since Q1 2021

Today is the last Friday of the quarter. BTC$ is up 72% this quarter, the most since Q1 2021 (103%).

This week, BTC$ reached another local high of 29.2k. Volume in the market has been much lower for a few weeks now. Especially Binance has seen a slump in volume after they reintroduced trading fees. Most people are now wondering when we will reach 30k! According to the thin volume, it should be possible in the near term – if buyers take over.

The market swiftly recovered from the Binance FUD, which saw BTC drop 5%. From Tuesday to Thursday, BTC$ went up by 9%. The market either has adopted to the mantra of bad news is good news, in the sense that if any bad actor is found guilty, they are welcome to leave the crypto ecosystem. Or, it has recognised that the worst that can happen is receiving a hefty fine. This is similar to what BitMEX paid in 2021, after being charged by the CFTC in 2020 for illegally operating a trading platform and anti-money laundering violations.

The market would expect such news to spark major panic among users. However, only assets worth $1.5bn were withdrawn when the CFTC case was publicised. This is a usual figure and nothing out of the norm, even though the media makes it seem like a bank run was initiated on Binance. Here, the power of on-chain metrics comes in handy. I strongly suggest investors become familiar with tools such as CryptoQuant, Glassnode, and Dune to fact-check media headlines.

MicroStrategy, which has not been in the news for a while, announced through its Form 8-K that they repaid the principle on its loan from Silvergate Bank. Additionally, it purchased another 6,455 BTC for roughly $150m over the past couple of weeks at an average price of around $23,238. They now hold a total of 138,955 BTC at an average approximate price of $29,817.

On the macro side: the GDP for Q4 was at 2.6%, down from 3.2% in the previous quarter. Initial jobless claims increased from 191k to 198k, higher than the projected 196k. PCE figures for February will be released today and should help confirm the slowdown in the US economy if the lower forecast is achieved after January saw a spike in consumer spending. Nevertheless, on Thursday, multiple Federal Reserve officials voiced the need for further interest rate hikes to slow down inflation. This is nothing we have not heard before.

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