Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoin, the U.S.–Iran truce broke down again, and the Fed minutes brought a rate hike closer. Bitcoin is still trading at around USD 63,700 this morning, up 3.5% over seven days and only around USD 500 below Monday’s two-week high.
Last week’s squeeze did not become a clean crypto bid. It became something more useful: a floor capable of absorbing bad news and real supply.
Macro: The Hawk Meets the Chip
The soft payrolls supported the rally, but this week’s data refused to complete the dovish story. June ISM services held at 54.0, its employment component jumped to 51.2 from 47.9, and initial jobless claims slipped to 215,000. The FOMC minutes then showed that a few officials already saw a case for another hike. Markets now assign a high probability to a hike this year, while the U.S. 10-year yield sits at 4.54%.
Oil added the second test. Renewed U.S.–Iran strikes sent crude sharply higher midweek before WTI settled back near USD 72 and Brent near USD 76 on Thursday. The shock has not disappeared, but equities chose AI over geopolitics. The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 7,544, up 0.8%, while the Nasdaq gained 1.3% as semiconductors surged. The DXY eased to 100.77.
If the softer dollar and renewed equity risk appetite continue to offset higher yields, we believe the macro backdrop remains supportive enough for the rebound in risk assets to continue. However, if oil stays elevated and inflation pushes the market further toward a Fed hike, that balance could change quickly: higher yields and a stronger dollar would become the dominant force again.
Crypto: Supply Arrived, Demand Held
BTC’s map is clear. USD 60,000 is the regime line, Wednesday’s USD 61,850 area is first support, and Monday’s USD 64,500 high is the breakout level. A close above the latter would turn a defended floor into a recovery trend. Losing USD 60,000 would make this another range trade.
ETH trades at USD 1,750, up roughly 4% over seven days, but it again failed to hold USD 1,800 after touching USD 1,830 on Monday. BTC dominance stands at 56.33%, while ETH dominance remains only 9.41%; hardly an alt-season setup. HYPE was little changed on the week but continues to coil near USD 68 in a constructive symmetrical triangle on the daily chart, with an upside break needed to confirm continuation.
The week’s biggest crypto story was Strategy turning last week’s framework into an actual sale. It sold 3,588 BTC for roughly USD 216 million, reducing its holdings to 843,775 BTC and replenishing a USD 2.55 billion reserve. That represented only around 0.4% of its stack, but it was still the company’s largest Bitcoin sale to date.
Yet BTC rose.
The distinction we made last week held: planned monetization is not forced liquidation. The overhang is now measurable rather than mythical.
Looking Ahead: CPI Takes Center Stage
Next week is dominated by U.S. inflation and Fed communication. June CPI lands Tuesday alongside Chairman Warsh’s House testimony and the start of major bank earnings. Wednesday brings PPI, Warsh before the Senate, and the Beige Book, followed by retail sales and jobless claims on Thursday. For crypto, CPI is the clear focal point.
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